Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 33

Date: 16 May 2025, Friday

Location: Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu (Mielec)

Referee: Marciniak T. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 7, Arena Sport 8
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV
World	Onefootball


	Stal Mielec		Radomiak Radom

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.4	2.7	Watch
	2.4	3.4	2.75
	2.45	3.3	2.8	Watch
	2.52	3.4	2.84
	2.65	3.17	2.8	Watch
	2.4	3.3	2.7
	2.62	3.33	2.66	Watch
	2.45	3.3	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↑ (2.49)	3.33 ↑ (3.25)	2.76 ↑ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stal Mielec
37.6%

Draw
28.3%

Radomiak Radom
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

28.6%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

29.5%

33%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stal Mielec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Radomiak Radom has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Radomiak Radom than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	20%	30%

Stal Mielec - Radomiak Radom Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Stal Mielec will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Radomiak will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stal Mielec: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Radomiak (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Madrzyk J. (G) 27. Jaunzems A. 21. Matras M. 33. Bukowski A. 20. Knap K. 18. Wlazlo P. (C) 6. Guillaumier M. 11. Wolkowicz K. 32. Gerbowski F. 14. Cavaleiro I. 25. Wolsztynski L.	1. Kikolski M. (G) 25. Burch M. 5. Agouzoul S. 23. Henrique P. 24. Zie Ouattara 88. Ramos F. 10. Alves R. 77. Donis C. 13. Grzesik J. (C) 15. Tapsoba A. 19. Barbosa R.
Substitutes
96. Dadok R. 10. Domanski M. 3. Esselink B. 23. Getinger K. 26. Hannola P. 13. Jalocha K. (G) 92. Kadzior D. 44. Krykun S. 73. Niedzwiedz N.	11. Capita 17. Dadashov R. 8. Golubickas P. 6. Jordao B. 28. Kaput M. 74. Kingue S. 44. Koptas W. (G) 7. Pedro Perotti 33. Pestka K.
Coaches
Djurdjevic I.	Henriques J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Henrique P. ⚽, Alves R. (A),
43', Zie Ouattara 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 1, Cavaleiro I. ⚽, Wolsztynski L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Zie Ouattara ↓, Kingue S. ↑,
46', Cavaleiro I. ↓, Domanski M. ↑,
46', Bukowski A. ↓, Esselink B. ↑,
61', Wolkowicz K. ↓, Getinger K. ↑,
62', Gerbowski F. ↓, Dadok R. ↑,
63', Barbosa R. ↓, Capita ↑,
63', Ramos F. ↓, Jordao B. ↑,
72', Tapsoba A. ↓, Dadashov R. ↑,
73', 2 - 1, Guillaumier M. ⚽, Wolsztynski L. (A),
79', Donis C. ↓, Pedro Perotti ↑,
80', 2 - 2, Wlazlo P. (Own goal),
84', Wolsztynski L. ↓, Niedzwiedz N. ↑,
90+4', Capita 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 12).

Stal Mielec is Relegated to Division 1

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stal Mielec won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M. (Knee Injury) Pajnowski K. (Inactive) Tkacz D. (Inactive)

There will not play in Radomiak: Cichocki M. (Knee Injury) Guilherme (Inactive) Snopczynski J. (Knee Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Stal Mielec won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Stal Mielec won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 1.3:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stal Mielec
Polish Ekstraklasa
12.05.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Stal Mielec	2:3 ✺
03.05.25	Stal Mielec - Raków Częstochowa	0:2 ✺
28.04.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Stal Mielec	2:2 ✺
22.04.25	Stal Mielec - Górnik Zabrze	0:0 ✺
14.04.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Stal Mielec	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLTTL
- Radomiak Radom
Polish Ekstraklasa
10.05.25	Radomiak Radom - Pogoń Szczecin	2:0 ✺
04.05.25	Piast Gliwice - Radomiak Radom	0:0 ✺
27.04.25	Radomiak Radom - Lech Poznań	2:2 ✺
21.04.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Radomiak Radom	2:2 ✺
12.04.25	Raków Częstochowa - Radomiak Radom	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
24.11.24	Radomiak Radom - Stal Mielec	1:2
04.03.24	Radomiak Radom - Stal Mielec	2:1
25.08.23	Stal Mielec - Radomiak Radom	2:0
05.02.23	Radomiak Radom - Stal Mielec	1:0
25.07.22	Stal Mielec - Radomiak Radom	1:1
20.03.22	Radomiak Radom - Stal Mielec	1:1
25.09.21	Stal Mielec - Radomiak Radom	1:0

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