Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 31

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu (Mielec)

Referee: Gryckiewicz P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV
World	Onefootball


	Stal Mielec		Raków Częstochowa

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.75	1.67	Watch
	4.5	3.6	1.73
	4.6	3.8	1.7	Watch
	4.96	3.99	1.7
	4.83	3.94	1.7	Watch
	4.4	3.5	1.75
	4.68	3.86	1.7	Watch
	4.6	3.8	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.61 ↑ (4.3)	3.78 ↑ (3.75)	1.71 ↓ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stal Mielec
20.3%

Draw
24.8%

Raków Częstochowa
54.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.7%

24.9%

53.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.2%

24.4%

54.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Raków Częstochowa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	10%	60%

Stal Mielec - Raków Częstochowa Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Stal Mielec will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Raków will win (votes: 6 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Raków: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Raków (2.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Raków (2.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Raków Częstochowa will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Raków (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Madrzyk J. (G) 18. Wlazlo P. (C) 21. Matras M. 3. Esselink B. 27. Jaunzems A. 6. Guillaumier M. 20. Knap K. 11. Wolkowicz K. 32. Gerbowski F. 25. Wolsztynski L. 92. Kadzior D.	1. Trelowski K. (G) 2. Mosor A. 24. Arsenic Z. (C) 4. Svarnas S. 20. Silva J. 5. Berggren G. 30. Kochergin V. 84. Adriano 15. Diaz J. 18. Brunes J. 10. Lopez I.
Substitutes
9. Assayag R. 7. Beauguel J. 33. Bukowski A. 10. Domanski M. 23. Getinger K. 26. Hannola P. 13. Jalocha K. (G) 44. Krykun S. 77. Zieba D.	23. Barath P. 12. Kuciak D. (G) 8. Lederman B. 9. Makuch P. 14. Plavsic S. 17. Rocha L. 88. Rodin M. 3. Rundic M. 97. Seck I.
Coaches
Djurdjevic I.	Papszun M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
65', Gerbowski F. ↓, Domanski M. ↑,
65', Kadzior D. ↓, Krykun S. ↑,
66', Diaz J. ↓, Makuch P. ↑,
66', Mosor A. ↓, Barath P. ↑,
73', 0 - 1, Barath P. ⚽,
76', Silva J. ↓, Rodin M. ↑,
77', Wolsztynski L. ↓, Beauguel J. ↑,
77', Knap K. ↓, Hannola P. ↑,
82', 0 - 2, Brunes J. ⚽, Lopez I. (A),
85', Brunes J. ↓, Rocha L. ↑,
85', Kochergin V. ↓, Lederman B. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stal Mielec won 0.

Recent form of Stal Mielec has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Raków is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Raków may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Raków is the team to beat.

There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Raków: Ameyaw M. (Muscle Injury) Otieno E. (Red Card) Racovitan B. (Knee Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Stal Mielec won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 19:26. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Stal Mielec won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1.1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stal Mielec
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.04.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Stal Mielec	2:2 ✺
22.04.25	Stal Mielec - Górnik Zabrze	0:0 ✺
14.04.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Stal Mielec	3:2 ✺
04.04.25	Stal Mielec - Cracovia	1:1 ✺
30.03.25	Motor Lublin - Stal Mielec	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TTLTL
- Raków Częstochowa
Polish Ekstraklasa
25.04.25	Raków Częstochowa - Śląsk Wrocław	3:0 ✺
19.04.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Raków Częstochowa	1:0 ✺
12.04.25	Raków Częstochowa - Radomiak Radom	2:1 ✺
07.04.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Raków Częstochowa	1:1 ✺
31.03.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Raków Częstochowa	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
02.11.24	Raków Częstochowa - Stal Mielec	1:0
24.02.24	Stal Mielec - Raków Częstochowa	0:0
19.08.23	Raków Częstochowa - Stal Mielec	2:0
10.02.23	Stal Mielec - Raków Częstochowa	0:0
31.07.22	Raków Częstochowa - Stal Mielec	3:2
14.03.22	Raków Częstochowa - Stal Mielec	2:1
19.09.21	Stal Mielec - Raków Częstochowa	0:3

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