Match Info

League One - Round 38

Date: 24 April 2025, Thursday

Location: Lamex Stadium (Stevenage)

Referee: Davies A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Paramount+


	Stevenage Borough		Birmingham City

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.3	1.9	Watch
	4.6	3.3	1.8
	4.33	3.3	1.9	Watch
	4.46	3.35	1.96
	4.36	3.19	1.92	Watch
	4.5	3.3	1.85
	4.3	3.28	1.94	Watch
	4.33	3.3	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.39 ↑ (4.33)	3.29 ↓ (3.7)	1.9 ↑ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stevenage Borough
21.5%

Draw
28.7%

Birmingham City
49.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.2%

24.8%

54%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.6%

24.1%

55.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stevenage Borough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Birmingham City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stevenage Borough than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Birmingham City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28%	12%	60%

Stevenage Borough - Birmingham City Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Stevenage will win (votes: 7 - 28%). Birmingham will win (votes: 15 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 12%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Birmingham: 40.8% – 79.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Stevenage (3.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Birmingham City will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Stevenage (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Birmingham (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ashby-Hammond T. (G) 6. Sweeney D. 15. Goode C. 16. Freestone L. 2. Wildin L. (C) 22. Phillips D. 18. White H. 3. Butler D. 9. Appere L. 11. Roberts J. 19. Reid J.	21. Allsop R. (G) 19. Gardner-Hickman T. 31. Hanley G. 25. Davies B. 16. Lee Myung-Jae 30. Dowell K. 12. Leonard M. 26. Harris L. 13. Paik Seung-Ho 14. Anderson K. 9. May A. (C)
Substitutes
29. Edwards K. 27. Hanlan B. 17. List E. 41. Mitchell R. (G) 5. Piergianni C. 23. Thompson L. 30. Young J.	20. Cochrane A. 24. Iwata T. 10. Jutkiewicz L. 4. Klarer C. 45. Peacock-Farrell B. (G) 28. Stansfield J. 18. Willumsson W. T.
Coaches
Revell A.	Davies C.

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 14 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship).

Birmingham is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Championship

Recent matches Stevenage is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Birmingham is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Birmingham is a favorite.

There will not play in Stevenage: Smith K. (Injury)

There will not play in Birmingham: Buchanan L. (Knee Injury) Dykes L. (Calf Injury) Wright S. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Stevenage: Forster-Caskey J. (Injury) Freeman N. (Injury) Freestone L. (Injury)

There are questionable in Birmingham: Bielik K. (Injury) Hansson E. (Knock)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Stevenage won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:3 (average 0.5:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Stevenage won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stevenage Borough
English League One
21.04.25	Bristol Rovers - Stevenage Borough	0:1 ✺
18.04.25	Stevenage Borough - Blackpool	1:3 ✺
12.04.25	Wycombe Wanderers - Stevenage Borough	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Stevenage Borough - Crawley Town	3:1 ✺
01.04.25	Stockport County - Stevenage Borough	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLLWL
- Birmingham City
English League One
21.04.25	Burton Albion - Birmingham City	1:2 ✺
18.04.25	Birmingham City - Crawley Town	0:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
13.04.25	Birmingham City - Peterborough United	0:2 ✺
English League One
08.04.25	Peterborough United - Birmingham City	1:2 ✺
05.04.25	Birmingham City - Barnsley	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
11.03.25	Birmingham City - Stevenage Borough	2:1
English EFL Trophy
04.02.25	Stevenage Borough - Birmingham City	0:1

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