Match Info

League One - Round 44

Date: 21 April 2025, Monday

Location: Memorial Stadium (Bristol)

Referee: Doughty L. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Bristol Rovers		Stevenage Borough

	1	X	2
	2.63	3	2.88	Watch
	2.45	3.25	2.8
	2.6	3.1	2.85	Watch
	2.66	3.12	2.92
	2.49	3.03	2.99	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.88
	2.61	2.98	2.86	Watch
	2.6	3.1	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↓ (3.07)	3.09 ↓ (3.33)	2.88 ↑ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bristol Rovers
36.7%

Draw
30.6%

Stevenage Borough
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.8%

28.4%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

27.3%

39.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bristol Rovers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bristol Rovers's performance.

Stevenage Borough has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Stevenage Borough might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bristol Rovers than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stevenage Borough than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stevenage Borough could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	7.1%	14.3%

Bristol Rovers - Stevenage Borough Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Bristol Rovers will win (votes: 11 - 78.6%). Stevenage will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bristol Rovers: 57.1% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bristol Rovers (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Bristol Rovers (1.77) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Bristol Rovers (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ward J. (G) 17. Taylor C. 5. Wilson J. (C) 4. Moore T. 32. Hunt J. 26. Butcher M. 14. Sawyers R. 11. Thomas L. 37. Shaw K. 24. O'Donkor G. 10. Sotiriou R.	1. Ashby-Hammond T. (G) 2. Wildin L. 15. Goode C. 5. Piergianni C. (C) 16. Freestone L. 29. Edwards K. 23. Thompson L. 11. Roberts J. 8. Forster-Caskey J. 17. List E. 19. Reid J.
Substitutes
28. Forde S. 35. Hall M. (G) 19. Hutchinson I. 29. Lindsay J. 7. Sinclair S. 25. Swinkels S. 8. Ward G.	9. Appere L. 3. Butler D. 27. Hanlan B. 41. Mitchell R. (G) 22. Phillips D. 6. Sweeney D. 18. White H.
Coaches
Calderon I.	Revell A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Reid J. ⚽, List E. (A),
28', Forster-Caskey J. ↓, White H. ↑,
32', Sotiriou R. ↓, Hutchinson I. ↑,
36', White H. 🟨,
45+2', Moore T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', List E. 🟨,
53', Thompson L. 🟨,
63', Moore T. ↓, Sinclair S. ↑,
63', Butcher M. ↓, Forde S. ↑,
68', Edwards K. ↓, Phillips D. ↑,
68', List E. ↓, Hanlan B. ↑,
81', Freestone L. ↓, Butler D. ↑,
81', Reid J. ↓, Sweeney D. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bristol Rovers won 2.

Bristol Rovers has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Stevenage is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Bristol Rovers: Conteh K. (Knee Injury) Martin C. (Injury) Omochere P. (Injury)

There will not play in Stevenage: Smith K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Bristol Rovers: Senior J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Stevenage: Freeman N. (Injury)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Bristol Rovers won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 9:11 (average 1.1:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Bristol Rovers won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2:6 (average 0.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Bristol Rovers - the odds 3.07 are the expected chance of winning is 30.77%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Stevenage Borough - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 40.81%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bristol Rovers
English League One
18.04.25	Wrexham - Bristol Rovers	1:1 ✺
12.04.25	Bristol Rovers - Exeter City	1:2 ✺
05.04.25	Bolton Wanderers - Bristol Rovers	1:0 ✺
01.04.25	Bristol Rovers - Birmingham City	1:2 ✺
29.03.25	Bristol Rovers - Mansfield Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TLLLL
- Stevenage Borough
English League One
18.04.25	Stevenage Borough - Blackpool	1:3 ✺
12.04.25	Wycombe Wanderers - Stevenage Borough	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Stevenage Borough - Crawley Town	3:1 ✺
01.04.25	Stockport County - Stevenage Borough	3:0 ✺
27.03.25	Leyton Orient - Stevenage Borough	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
29.12.24	Stevenage Borough - Bristol Rovers	3:0
13.02.24	Stevenage Borough - Bristol Rovers	2:3
24.10.23	Bristol Rovers - Stevenage Borough	1:1
English League Two
19.02.22	Stevenage Borough - Bristol Rovers	0:4
14.08.21	Bristol Rovers - Stevenage Borough	0:2
English EFL Trophy
08.01.20	Bristol Rovers - Stevenage Borough	0:1
English League Two
19.04.16	Stevenage Borough - Bristol Rovers	0:0

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