Match Info

League One - Round 41

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Lamex Stadium (Stevenage)

Referee: Oldham S. (Eng)


	Stevenage Borough		Crawley Town

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.3	3.75	Watch
	1.85	3.6	4
	2.05	3.4	3.6	Watch
	2	3.35	3.75	Watch
	1.85	3.6	4.2
	2.03	3.26	3.71	Watch
	2.05	3.4	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.6)	3.42 ↓ (3.6)	3.8 ↓ (5.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stevenage Borough
47.6%

Draw
27.6%

Crawley Town
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.2%

25.4%

17.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

23.5%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stevenage Borough has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Stevenage Borough's form might have worsened.

Crawley Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Crawley Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stevenage Borough than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Stevenage Borough, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crawley Town than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Crawley Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Stevenage Borough - Crawley Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Stevenage will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Crawley will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Crawley (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Crawley (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Crawley (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Cooper M. (G) 2. Wildin L. 15. Goode C. 5. Piergianni C. (C) 16. Freestone L. 23. Thompson L. 18. White H. 22. Phillips D. 10. Kemp D. 9. Appere L. 17. List E.	1. Wollacott J. (G) 5. Barker C. 24. Mullarkey T. 3. Conroy D. (C) 18. Quitirna A. 12. Camara P. 10. Fraser L. 23. Ibrahim B. 19. Kelly J. 26. Doyle K. 14. Hepburn-Murphy R.
Substitutes
1. Ashby-Hammond T. (G) 3. Butler D. 27. Hanlan B. 26. King E. 19. Reid J. 11. Roberts J. 6. Sweeney D.	6. Anderson M. 8. Holohan G. 45. John-Jules T. 30. Radcliffe B. 11. Roles J. 9. Swan W.
Coaches
Revell A.	Lindsey S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, White H. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
50', Goode C. 🟨,
63', Camara P. ↓, Roles J. ↑,
63', List E. ↓, Roberts J. ↑,
64', Appere L. ↓, Hanlan B. ↑,
70', 1 - 1, Ibrahim B. ⚽, Roles J. (A),
76', White H. ↓, Reid J. ↑,
76', Phillips D. ↓, King E. ↑,
77', Fraser L. ↓, John-Jules T. ↑,
85', Ibrahim B. 🟨,
88', Mullarkey T. ↓, Radcliffe B. ↑,
88', Doyle K. ↓, Holohan G. ↑,
89', 2 - 1, Reid J. ⚽,
90+2', 3 - 1, Kemp D. ⚽,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 13 and 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Stevenage won 3.

Stevenage is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Crawley is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Crawley could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Stevenage have a series of guest games.

In this match Stevenage is a favorite.

There will not play in Stevenage: Forster-Caskey J. (Knee Injury) Smith K. (Injury)

There will not play in Crawley: Mukena J. (Inactive) Sandford R. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Stevenage: Freeman N. (Injury)

There are questionable in Crawley: Forster H. (Injury) Showunmi T. (Inactive) Watson L. (Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Stevenage won 9 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 29:24 (average 1.5:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Stevenage won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 15:9 (average 1.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stevenage Borough
English League One
01.04.25	Stockport County - Stevenage Borough	3:0 ✺
27.03.25	Leyton Orient - Stevenage Borough	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Reading - Stevenage Borough	1:1 ✺
11.03.25	Birmingham City - Stevenage Borough	2:1 ✺
08.03.25	Stevenage Borough - Mansfield Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLT
- Crawley Town
English League One
01.04.25	Crawley Town - Peterborough United	3:4 ✺
29.03.25	Rotherham United - Crawley Town	0:4 ✺
22.03.25	Crawley Town - Bristol Rovers	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Huddersfield Town - Crawley Town	5:1 ✺
11.03.25	Crawley Town - Charlton Athletic	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
11.02.25	Crawley Town - Stevenage Borough	3:1
English League Two
30.12.22	Stevenage Borough - Crawley Town	3:1
01.10.22	Crawley Town - Stevenage Borough	1:2
05.02.22	Crawley Town - Stevenage Borough	2:2
18.01.22	Stevenage Borough - Crawley Town	2:1
01.05.21	Stevenage Borough - Crawley Town	3:3
16.02.21	Crawley Town - Stevenage Borough	0:1

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