Match Info

League One - Round 19

Date: 9 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Lamex Stadium (Stevenage)

Referee: Oldham J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Stevenage Borough		Cardiff City

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.2	2.45
	2.78	3.15	2.52
	2.9	3.22	2.61
	2.86	3.17	2.51	Watch
	2.8	3	2.5
	2.83	3.14	2.5	Watch
	2.85	3.1	2.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↓ (2.85)	3.14 ↑ (3.05)	2.52 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stevenage Borough
33.2%

Draw
29.8%

Cardiff City
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

29.4%

39%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

30%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stevenage Borough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Cardiff City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stevenage Borough than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5%	25%	70%

Stevenage Borough - Cardiff City Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Stevenage will win (votes: 1 - 5%). Cardiff will win (votes: 14 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cardiff: 49.9% – 90.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Cardiff (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Cardiff (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Cardiff (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marschall F. (G) 2. James-Wildin L. 15. Goode C. 5. Piergianni C. (C) 16. Freestone L. 4. Houghton J. 14. Earley S. 33. Doherty R. 23. Thompson L. 30. Lubala B. 19. Reid J.	13. Trott N. (G) 38. Ng P. 2. Fish W. 12. Chambers C. (C) 3. Bagan J. 6. Wintle R. 18. Robertson A. 16. Willock C. 27. Colwill J. 45. Ashford C. 22. Salech Y.
Substitutes
13. Ashby-Hammond T. (G) 20. Campbell C. 24. Malcolm J. 17. Pattenden J. 44. Patterson P. 8. Phillips D. 6. Sweeney D.	39. Davies I. 8. Kellyman O. 44. Kpakio R. 48. Lawlor D. 47. Robinson C. 14. Turnbull D. 41. Turner M. (G)
Coaches
Revell A.	Barry-Murphy B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Piergianni C. 🟨,
45', Goode C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', Thompson L. ↓, Phillips D. ↑,
61', Colwill J. ↓, Kellyman O. ↑,
74', Lubala B. ↓, Campbell C. ↑,
75', Earley S. ↓, Patterson P. ↑,
75', Phillips D. 🟨,
76', Doherty R. 🟨,
80', Ashford C. ↓, Robinson C. ↑,
81', Willock C. ↓, Davies I. ↑,
81', Robertson A. ↓, Turnbull D. ↑,
82', Chambers C. 🟨,
85', 0 - 1, Robinson C. ⚽,
87', Doherty R. ↓, Malcolm J. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship).

Recent performances by Stevenage have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Cardiff is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Cardiff may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Cardiff has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Stevenage: Simpson T. (Inactive)

There will not play in Cardiff: Alnwick J. (Hamstring Injury) Colwill R. (Injury) King E. (Knee Injury) Osho G. (Injury) Tanner O. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Stevenage: Houghton J. (Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stevenage Borough
English EFL Trophy
02.12.25	Stevenage Borough - Walsall	1:2 ✺
English League One
29.11.25	Wigan Athletic - Stevenage Borough	0:0 ✺
25.11.25	Peterborough United - Stevenage Borough	0:1 ✺
22.11.25	Stevenage Borough - Doncaster Rovers	0:0 ✺
06.11.25	Reading - Stevenage Borough	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTWTL
- Cardiff City
English League One
06.12.25	Cardiff City - Huddersfield Town	3:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.12.25	Cardiff City - AFC Wimbledon	1:5 ✺
English League One
29.11.25	Cardiff City - Mansfield Town	3:0 ✺
22.11.25	Northampton Town - Cardiff City	1:3 ✺
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Cardiff City - Arsenal U21	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLWWW

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