Match Info

League One - Round 24

Date: 1 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Lamex Stadium (Stevenage)

Referee: Eley R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Stevenage Borough		Plymouth Argyle

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.3	3.6	Watch
	2.02	3.25	3.7	Watch
	2.04	3.32	3.68	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.5
	2.08	3.22	3.62	Watch
	2.08	3.2	3.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (1.99)	3.23 ↑ (3.2)	3.63 ↑ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stevenage Borough
45.6%

Draw
28.8%

Plymouth Argyle
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

28.6%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

30.1%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stevenage Borough has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Plymouth Argyle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stevenage Borough than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Plymouth Argyle than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	14.3%	28.6%

Stevenage Borough - Plymouth Argyle Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Stevenage will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Plymouth will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stevenage: 31.2% – 83%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Stevenage (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Plymouth (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marschall F. (G) 2. James-Wildin L. 6. Sweeney D. 5. Piergianni C. (C) 16. Freestone L. 4. Houghton J. 18. White H. 24. Malcolm J. 8. Phillips D. 44. Patterson P. 19. Reid J.	1. Hazard C. (G) 8. Edwards J. (C) 2. Ross M. 15. Mitchell A. 29. Sorinola M. 32. Ralls J. 19. Boateng M. 4. Wiredu B. 11. Mumba B. 9. Tolaj L. 27. Pepple A.
Substitutes
13. Ashby-Hammond T. (G) 20. Campbell C. 14. Earley S. 10. Kemp D. 17. Pattenden J. 11. Roberts J. 22. Young J.	10. Amaechi X. 21. Ashby-Hammond L. (G) 39. Finn T. 22. Galloway B. 20. McCabe L. 6. Szucs K. 17. Watts C.
Coaches
Revell A.	Cleverley T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', 1 - 0, James-Wildin L. ⚽, Patterson P. (A),
59', Malcolm J. ↓, Kemp D. ↑,
64', Reid J. 🟨,
67', Wiredu B. ↓, Amaechi X. ↑,
67', Mumba B. ↓, Watts C. ↑,
67', Edwards J. ↓, Szucs K. ↑,
68', 1 - 1, Boateng M. ⚽, Watts C. (A),
74', Houghton J. ↓, Roberts J. ↑,
74', Patterson P. ↓, Campbell C. ↑,
74', Reid J. ↓, Young J. ↑,
90+3', Campbell C. 🟨,
90+3', Young J. ↓, Pattenden J. ↑,
90+4', Sorinola M. 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 7 and 21 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stevenage won 0.

In recent matches, Stevenage has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Plymouth is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Stevenage might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Stevenage: Simpson T. (Inactive)

There will not play in Plymouth: Galloway B. (International duty) Ibrahim B. (Inactive) MacKenzie J. (Shin Injury)

There are questionable in Plymouth: Dale O. (Inactive)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Stevenage won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:15. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Stevenage won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 1.3:1.3).

Outrights of English League One for now

Plymouth: 8.96% Stevenage: 2.2%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Plymouth	9	5	1	3	16:11	5	16
13	Stevenage	7	2	3	2	11:8	3	9

Last Results with these Odds

Plymouth Argyle - the odds 3.63 are the expected chance of winning is 25.29%, but this team recently wins 47% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stevenage Borough
English League One
29.12.25	Cardiff City - Stevenage Borough	2:1 ✺
26.12.25	AFC Wimbledon - Stevenage Borough	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Stevenage Borough - Burton Albion	2:2 ✺
13.12.25	Stockport County - Stevenage Borough	1:3 ✺
09.12.25	Stevenage Borough - Cardiff City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LTTWL
- Plymouth Argyle
English League One
29.12.25	Plymouth Argyle - Wycombe Wanderers	1:1 ✺
26.12.25	Plymouth Argyle - Reading	1:4 ✺
20.12.25	Doncaster Rovers - Plymouth Argyle	1:5 ✺
13.12.25	Plymouth Argyle - Rotherham United	1:0 ✺
09.12.25	Wycombe Wanderers - Plymouth Argyle	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.3 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
25.01.20	Stevenage Borough - Plymouth Argyle	1:2
29.12.19	Plymouth Argyle - Stevenage Borough	2:1
English FA Cup
10.11.18	Plymouth Argyle - Stevenage Borough	1:0
English League Two
14.01.17	Plymouth Argyle - Stevenage Borough	4:2
08.10.16	Stevenage Borough - Plymouth Argyle	1:2
16.01.16	Plymouth Argyle - Stevenage Borough	3:2
05.09.15	Stevenage Borough - Plymouth Argyle	2:1

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