Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 2 October 2024, Wednesday

Location: Merkur-Arena (Graz)

Referee: Aghayev A. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 4, Pickx+ Sports 4, RTL Club, RTL Play, VTM 2
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Netherlands	Sporza
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	Sturm Graz		Club Brugge

	1	X	2
	4.33	4.1	1.7
	4.4	4	1.73
	4.35	4.15	1.75
	4.63	4.16	1.74
	4.3	4.11	1.79	Watch
	4.2	3.8	1.85
	4.47	4.23	1.75
	4.3	4.05	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.37 ↑ (2.53)	4.08 ↑ (3.6)	1.76 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sturm Graz
22%

Draw
23.6%

Club Brugge
54.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

26.6%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

28.2%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sturm Graz's form might have worsened.

Club Brugge has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+19.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Club Brugge's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (+13.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sturm Graz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Club Brugge than the current prediction. (-17%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Club Brugge, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.1%	19.7%	44.3%

Sturm Graz - Club Brugge Predictions

Users Predictions: 60 users predict this event. Sturm will win (votes: 21 - 35%). Brugge will win (votes: 27 - 45%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brugge: 32.4% – 57.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Scherpen K. (G) 2. Johnston M. 47. Aiwu E. 35. Geyrhofer N. 22. Gazibegovic J. 21. Chukwuani T. 8. Yalcouye M. 15. Boving W. 10. Kiteishvili O. (C) 36. Camara A. 18. Biereth M.	22. Mignolet S. (G) 65. Seys J. 4. Ordonez J. 30. Jashari A. 44. Mechele B. 55. De Cuyper M. 7. Skov Olsen A. 15. Onyedika R. 20. Vanaken H. (C) 8. Tzolis C. 9. Jutgla F.
Substitutes
40. Bignetti M. (G) 38. Grgic L. 25. Hierlander S. 19. Horvat T. 20. Jatta S. 17. Karic E. 53. Khudyakov D. (G) 23. Malic A. 32. Schopp K. 33. Sorg O. 9. Yardimci E. 14. Zvonarek L.	29. Jackers N. (G) 27. Nielsen C. 2. Romero Z. 64. Sabbe K. 21. Skoras M. 68. Talbi C. 17. Vermant R. 10. Vetlesen H.
Coaches
Ilzer C.	Hayen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Tzolis C. ⚽, Onyedika R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Skov Olsen A. ↓, Skoras M. ↑,
51', Aiwu E. 🟨,
58', Camara A. ↓, Jatta S. ↑,
66', Geyrhofer N. 🟨,
66', Biereth M. ↓, Yardimci E. ↑,
66', Boving W. ↓, Horvat T. ↑,
70', Yalcouye M. 🟨,
70', Chukwuani T. 🟨,
73', Skoras M. 🟨,
77', Jutgla F. ↓, Vermant R. ↑,
82', Chukwuani T. ↓, Hierlander S. ↑,
82', Yalcouye M. ↓, Zvonarek L. ↑,
90+4', Gazibegovic J. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Sturm could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Brugge will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Sturm: Borkovic A. (Knee Injury) Gorenc Stankovic J. (Forearm injury) Lavalee D. (Red Card) Wuthrich G. (Injury)

There will not play in Brugge: Meijer B. (Knee Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sturm Graz
Austrian Bundesliga
28.09.24	Blau-Weiss Linz - Sturm Graz	1:2 ✺
25.09.24	Austria Wien - Sturm Graz	2:2 ✺
22.09.24	Sturm Graz - Wolfsberger	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
19.09.24	Brest - Sturm Graz	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
05.09.24	Sturm Graz - Kapfenberger SV	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WTLLW
- Club Brugge
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
27.09.24	Charleroi - Club Brugge	1:1 ✺
22.09.24	Club Brugge - Gent	2:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.09.24	Club Brugge - Borussia Dortmund	0:3 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
14.09.24	Kortrijk - Club Brugge	0:3 ✺
01.09.24	Club Brugge - Cercle Brugge	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TLLWW

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