Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 11

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Merkur-Arena (Graz)

Referee: Spurny J. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 2
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Russia	TV Start, TV Start Triumph
Serbia	Arena Sport 5
Slovakia	Arena sport 2
World	Onefootball


	Sturm Graz		Wolfsberger

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.5	3.6	Watch
	1.98	3.45	3.55
	2.02	3.7	3.96
	1.91	3.77	3.72	Watch
	1.96	3.52	3.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↑ (1.86)	3.59 ↓ (3.7)	3.7 (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sturm Graz
48.1%

Draw
26.3%

Wolfsberger
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.8%

26.6%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Wolfsberger has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wolfsberger than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.9%	0%	23.1%

Sturm Graz - Wolfsberger Predictions

Users Predictions: Sturm Graz will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sturm Graz will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Bignetti M. (C) 2. Mitchell J. 47. Aiwu E. 24. Lavalee D. 17. Karic E. 21. Chukwuani T. 4. Gorenc Stankovic J. 19. Horvat T. 20. Jatta S. 43. Hodl J. 38. Grgic L.	12. Polster N. (G) 22. Baumgartner D. (C) 27. Nwaiwu C. 37. Wimmer N. 2. Matic B. 8. Piesinger S. 18. Schopf A. 77. Renner R. 20. Zukic D. 32. Pink M. 7. Gattermayer A.
Substitutes
22. Beck J. 35. Geyrhofer N. 11. Kayombo A. 53. Khudyakov D. (G) 10. Kiteishvili O. 23. Malic A. 77. Malone M. 5. Oermann T. 8. Rozga F.	34. Agyeman E. 10. Avdijaj D. 35. Chukwu E. 13. Gruber T. 1. Gutlbauer L. (G) 9. Kojzek E. 11. Ogam R. 30. Sulzner M. 31. Wohlmuth F.
Coaches
Saumel J.	Pacult P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
8', Lavalee D. 🟨,
12', 0 - 1, Zukic D. ⚽, Schopf A. (A),
17', Baumgartner D. 🟨,
19', 0 - 2, Piesinger S. ⚽, Matic B. (A),
32', 0 - 3, Renner R. ⚽, Matic B. (A),
37', Mitchell J. ↓, Malic A. ↑,
37', Hodl J. ↓, Rozga F. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', 1 - 3, Rozga F. ⚽,
56', Jatta S. ↓, Malone M. ↑,
57', Grgic L. ↓, Kayombo A. ↑,
57', Lavalee D. ↓, Kiteishvili O. ↑,
63', Piesinger S. ↓, Sulzner M. ↑,
75', Baumgartner D. 🟨,
77', Gattermayer A. ↓, Chukwu E. ↑,
90', Zukic D. 🟨,
90+3', Pink M. ↓, Kojzek E. ↑,
90+4', Kojzek E. 🟨,
90+6', Wimmer N. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sturm won 1.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Sturm may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Sturm will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Wolfsberger: Atanga D. (Muscle Injury) Diabate C. (Red Card) Skubl D. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sturm won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 29:33. (average 1.5:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Sturm won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 16:23. (average 1.5:2.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Sturm Graz - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 49.87%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sturm Graz
UEFA Europa League
23.10.25	Celtic - Sturm Graz	2:1 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
19.10.25	Blau-Weiss Linz - Sturm Graz	3:4 ✺
05.10.25	Rheindorf Altach - Sturm Graz	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
02.10.25	Sturm Graz - Glasgow Rangers	2:1 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
28.09.25	Sturm Graz - Hartberg	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWWWW
- Wolfsberger AC
Austrian Bundesliga
18.10.25	Wolfsberger - Ried	1:2 ✺
04.10.25	Grazer AK - Wolfsberger	1:3 ✺
27.09.25	Wolfsberger - LASK Linz	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Hartberg - Wolfsberger	2:2 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
16.09.25	Reichenau - Wolfsberger	0:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Austrian Bundesliga
24.05.25	Sturm Graz - Wolfsberger	1:1
30.03.25	Wolfsberger - Sturm Graz	1:1
15.02.25	Wolfsberger - Sturm Graz	3:0
22.09.24	Sturm Graz - Wolfsberger	0:3
03.03.24	Sturm Graz - Wolfsberger	4:0
08.10.23	Wolfsberger - Sturm Graz	1:2
16.10.22	Sturm Graz - Wolfsberger	3:2

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