Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 19 September 2024, Thursday

Location: Stade de Roudourou (Guingamp)

Referee: Walsh N. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football, SuperSport GOtv Football
Albania	Tring Sport 4
Argentina	ESPN 3
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 2
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 4, Pickx+ Sports 4
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3, Moja TV
Brazil	Max
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Croatia	Arena Sport 4
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo
France	Canal+ Live 3, CANAL+ Sport 360
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Italy	Sky Sport 255
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	HBO Max
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 6
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play
Pakistan	Tapmad
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Canal+ Extra 3
Portugal	DAZN 4
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovakia	Voyo
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1 Champions
South-america	ESPN 7 Latin America, ESPN7 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 5, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 6, Blue Sport 6
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 5, TNT Sports Digital Exclusive
Usa	Flow Sports 1, Paramount+
Venezuela	Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Plus, TV 360
World	Disney+, JioTV app, Prima+ app


	Brest		Sturm Graz

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.6	3.75
	1.95	3.6	3.75
	2	3.7	3.8
	2	3.62	4
	2.02	3.61	3.8	Watch
	2	3.6	3.7
	2.09	3.76	3.7
	2	3.7	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.87)	3.65 ↓ (3.71)	3.79 ↓ (4.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brest
48.1%

Draw
26.4%

Sturm Graz
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

25.9%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

27%

21.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Sturm Graz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brest than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Brest, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	16%	24%

Brest - Sturm Graz Predictions

Users Predictions: 49 users predict this event. Brest will win (votes: 29 - 59.2%). Sturm will win (votes: 12 - 24.5%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 16.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brest: 45.4% – 73%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Bizot M. (G) 7. Lala K. 5. Chardonnet B. (C) 44. Coulibaly S. 23. Amavi J. 45. Camara M. 6. Fernandes E. 8. Magnetti H. 21. Faivre R. 19. Ajorque L. 17. Sima A.	1. Scherpen K. (G) 22. Gazibegovic J. 47. Aiwu E. 5. Wuthrich G. 24. Lavalee D. 19. Horvat T. 4. Gorenc Stankovic J. (C) 10. Kiteishvili O. 15. Boving W. 18. Biereth M. 20. Jatta S.
Substitutes
14. Balde M. 11. Camblan A. 30. Coudert G. (G) 10. Del Castillo R. 9. Doumbia K. 22. Haidara M. 50. Jauny N. (G) 25. Le Cardinal J. 28. Martin J. 3. Ndiaye A. 26. Pereira Lage M. 34. Salah I.	40. Bignetti M. (G) 36. Camara A. 21. Chukwuani T. 35. Geyrhofer N. 38. Grgic L. 2. Johnston M. 17. Karic E. 53. Khudyakov D. (G) 23. Malic A. 8. Yalcouye M. 9. Yardimci E. 14. Zvonarek L.
Coaches
Roy E.	Ilzer C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', Wuthrich G. ↓, Johnston M. ↑,
21', Horvat T. 🟨,
22', Johnston M. 🟨,
23', 1 - 0, Magnetti H. ⚽,
37', Sima A. 🟨,
40', Lavalee D. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 1, Fernandes E. (Own goal), Boving W. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Horvat T. ↓, Yalcouye M. ↑,
56', 2 - 1, Sima A. ⚽, Ajorque L. (A),
59', Gorenc Stankovic J. 🟨,
60', Jatta S. ↓, Zvonarek L. ↑,
62', Faivre R. ↓, Del Castillo R. ↑,
64', Camara M. 🟨,
71', Camara M. ↓, Martin J. ↑,
71', Fernandes E. ↓, Doumbia K. ↑,
78', Biereth M. ↓, Yardimci E. ↑,
78', Kiteishvili O. ↓, Camara A. ↑,
83', Gazibegovic J. 🟨,
84', Amavi J. ↓, Haidara M. ↑,
84', Sima A. ↓, Pereira Lage M. ↑,
85', Ajorque L. 🟨,
89', Lavalee D. 🟨,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium.

Brest is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Sturm in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Sturm could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Brest will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Brest: Lees-Melou P. (Leg Injury) Locko B. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Sturm: Borkovic A. (Knee Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
14.09.24	Paris Saint-Germain - Brest	3:1 ✺
31.08.24	Brest - Saint-Étienne	4:0 ✺
25.08.24	Lens - Brest	2:0 ✺
17.08.24	Brest - Olympique Marseille	1:5 ✺
Club Friendly
10.08.24	Newcastle United - Brest	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LWLLL
- Sturm Graz
Club Friendly
05.09.24	Sturm Graz - Kapfenberger SV	4:1 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
31.08.24	Sturm Graz - Swarovski Tirol	4:2 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
28.08.24	Ried - Sturm Graz	1:3 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
24.08.24	Sturm Graz - Rheindorf Altach	2:1 ✺
17.08.24	Austria Klagenfurt - Sturm Graz	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWWW

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