Match Info

Champions League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 11 August 2026, Tuesday

Location: Merkur-Arena (Graz)

Referee: Hernandez A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	ORF 1, ORF On
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Greece	TV 100
Israel	5 LIVE Israel
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 3
Portugal	Sport TV4
Serbia	Arena Premium 3, Arena Premium 4
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Turkey	S Sport+
Usa	ESPN+, SportsEngine Play


	Sturm Graz		Fenerbahçe

	1	X	2
	3.90	4.33	1.75	Watch
	4.00	4.00	1.77
	4.40	3.85	1.77	Watch
	4.22	4.13	1.78
	4.2	3.98	1.78
	4.15	4.05	1.73
	4.13	4.36	1.72	Watch
	4.10	4.10	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.14 ↑ (3.84)	4.1 ↑ (3.71)	1.76 ↓ (1.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sturm Graz
22.9%

Draw
23.1%

Fenerbahçe
54%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.6%

25.5%

49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.2%

25.1%

50.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Fenerbahçe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.7%	17.8%	75.6%

Sturm Graz - Fenerbahçe Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Fenerbahçe (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fenerbahçe will win (34 of 43 users predict this - 79.07%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.91% – 91.23%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
53. Khudyakov D. (G) 23. Malic A. 2. Mitchell J. 21. Petrovic P. 18. Soglo E. 19. Seidl S. 4. Gorenc Stankovic J. (C) 39. Weinhandl L. 43. Hodl J. 11. Kayombo A. 20. Jatta S.	34. Gunok M. (G) 27. Semedo N. 37. Skriniar M. (C) 15. Ake N. 3. Brown A. 6. Guendouzi M. 91. Kante N. 11. Greenwood M. 10. Asensio M. 9. Akturkoglu K. 94. Talisca
Substitutes
27. Balbo L. 26. Beganovic B. 80. Fosso R. 40. Halwachs J. 28. Heil J. 22. Helac A. (G) 30. Koller P. 41. Lorenz E. (G) 15. Mamageishvili G. 5. Vallci A. 44. Weiper N. 17. Wlodarczyk S.	70. Aydin O. 13. Cetin T. (G) 26. Cherif S. 14. Demir Y. E. 7. Fred 17. Kahveci I. 18. Muldur M. 19. Muriqi V. 75. Sapaz K. (G) 4. Soyuncu C. 5. Yuksek I.
Coaches
Ingolitsch F.	Kartal I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Semedo N. 🟨,
45', Brown A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', Kayombo A. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
61', Jatta S. ↓, Beganovic B. ↑,
61', Malic A. ↓, Heil J. ↑,
62', Semedo N. ↓, Muldur M. ↑,
63', Greenwood M. ↓, Aydin O. ↑,
63', Asensio M. ↓, Fred ↑,
66', 0 - 1, Talisca (Penalty Awarded),
70', Gorenc Stankovic J. ↓, Fosso R. ↑,
73', Kante N. ↓, Yuksek I. ↑,
77', Talisca ↓, Muriqi V. ↑,
79', Petrovic P. ↓, Koller P. ↑,
80', Ingolitsch F. 🟨,
84', Mitchell J. 🟨,
89', Akturkoglu K. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-2.

Sturm is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Fenerbahçe is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Sturm may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Sturm has had a series of away games.

In this match, Fenerbahçe is considered a favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Sturm won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Sturm won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Fenerbahce: 0.55%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
20	Fenerbahce	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sturm Graz
Austrian Bundesliga
08.08.26	Hartberg - Sturm Graz	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.08.26	Fenerbahçe - Sturm Graz	2:0 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
01.08.26	Swarovski Tirol - Sturm Graz	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.07.26	Hearts - Sturm Graz	0:2 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
24.07.26	Seekirchen - Sturm Graz	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLTWW
- Fenerbahçe
UEFA Champions League
05.08.26	Fenerbahçe - Sturm Graz	2:0 ✺
29.07.26	Górnik Zabrze - Fenerbahçe	1:1 ✺
21.07.26	Fenerbahçe - Górnik Zabrze	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
14.07.26	LASK Linz - Fenerbahçe	1:2 ✺
11.07.26	Fenerbahçe - Pogoń Szczecin	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
05.08.26	Fenerbahçe - Sturm Graz	2:0
UEFA Europa League
03.08.17	Fenerbahçe - Sturm Graz	1:1
27.07.17	Sturm Graz - Fenerbahçe	1:2

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