Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 4

Date: 6 November 2024, Wednesday

Location: MHPArena (Stuttgart)

Referee: Obrenovic R. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 4, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football
Argentina	ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 5
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 6, Pickx+ Sports 6, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4, Moja TV
Brazil	Max
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	ESPN 2
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Colombia	ESPN 5
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	Canal+ Live 6
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 1, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Uno
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 1
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	Caliente TV
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Fox Sports 2
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Canal+ Extra 6
Portugal	DAZN 4
Romania	Prima Sport 5
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovakia	Voyo
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ESPN 5 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 6, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 7, Blue Sport 7
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 7
Usa	CBS, Paramount+
Venezuela	Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Plus, TV 360
World	Disney+, JioTV app


	Stuttgart		Atalanta

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.6	2.5
	2.65	3.4	2.55
	2.7	3.6	2.58	Watch
	2.71	3.65	2.63
	2.7	3.52	2.63	Watch
	2.7	3.5	2.6
	2.7	3.7	2.57
	2.7	3.6	2.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.16)	3.57 ↓ (3.92)	2.58 ↓ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stuttgart
35.8%

Draw
26.9%

Atalanta
37.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

24.5%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

25.2%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stuttgart has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Stuttgart's form might have worsened.

Atalanta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atalanta's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stuttgart than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Stuttgart, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atalanta, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.6%	25.4%	39%

Stuttgart - Atalanta Predictions

Users Predictions: 59 users predict this event. Stuttgart will win (votes: 21 - 35.6%). Atalanta will win (votes: 23 - 39%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 25.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atalanta: 26.6% – 51.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Nubel A. (G) 4. Vagnoman J. 45. Chase A. 29. Rouault A. 7. Mittelstadt M. 16. Karazor A. (C) 6. Stiller A. 8. Millot E. 26. Undav D. 27. Fuhrich C. 10. Toure E. B.	29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 19. Djimsiti B. 4. Hien I. 23. Kolasinac S. 16. Bellanova R. 15. De Roon M. (C) 13. Ederson 77. Zappacosta D. 8. Pasalic M. 32. Retegui M. 11. Lookman A.
Substitutes
2. Al Dakhil A. 1. Bredlow F. (G) 24. Chabot J. 9. Demirovic E. 5. Keitel Y. 13. Kratzig F. 47. Malanga J. 32. Rieder F. 41. Seimen D. (G) 15. Stenzel P. 20. Stergiou L.	44. Brescianini M. 7. Cuadrado J. 17. De Ketelaere C. 5. Godfrey B. 3. Kossounou O. 27. Palestra M. 28. Patricio R. (G) 31. Rossi F. (G) 22. Ruggeri M. 24. Samardzic L. 2. Toloi R. 10. Zaniolo N.
Coaches
Hoeness S.	Gasperini G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Kolasinac S. ↓, Kossounou O. ↑,
41', Chase A. 🟨,
43', Hien I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Pasalic M. ↓, De Ketelaere C. ↑,
51', 0 - 1, Lookman A. ⚽, De Ketelaere C. (A),
55', Ederson 🟨,
56', Undav D. ↓, Demirovic E. ↑,
69', Demirovic E. 🟨,
69', Retegui M. ↓, Zaniolo N. ↑,
74', Karazor A. ↓, Rieder F. ↑,
74', Fuhrich C. ↓, Chabot J. ↑,
79', Bellanova R. 🟨,
80', Toure E. B. ↓, Malanga J. ↑,
81', Chase A. ↓, Stenzel P. ↑,
85', Bellanova R. ↓, Ruggeri M. ↑,
85', Lookman A. ↓, Brescianini M. ↑,
88', 0 - 2, Zaniolo N. ⚽,

Preview

Stuttgart is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Atalanta is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Atalanta could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Stuttgart: Leweling J. (Muscle Injury) Raimund L. (Muscle Injury) Zagadou D. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Atalanta: Scalvini G. (Knee Injury) Scamacca G. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Stuttgart: Keitel Y. (Groin Injury) Stergiou L. (Back Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Stuttgart - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 44.54%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfB Stuttgart
German Bundesliga
01.11.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Stuttgart	0:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
29.10.24	Stuttgart - Kaiserslautern	2:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
26.10.24	Stuttgart - Holstein Kiel	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.10.24	Juventus - Stuttgart	0:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
19.10.24	Bayern Munich - Stuttgart	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 TWWWL
- Atalanta
Italian Serie A
03.11.24	Napoli - Atalanta	0:3 ✺
30.10.24	Atalanta - Monza	2:0 ✺
26.10.24	Atalanta - Verona	6:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
23.10.24	Atalanta - Celtic	0:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
20.10.24	Venezia - Atalanta	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWWTW

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