Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 4

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: MHPArena (Stuttgart)

Referee: Stieler T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Stuttgart		Borussia Dortmund

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.9	2.63	Watch
	2.35	3.90	2.65
	2.45	3.6	2.65	Watch
	2.48	4	2.73
	2.49	4.12	2.59	Watch
	2.4	3.8	2.65
	2.53	3.89	2.76	Watch
	2.33	4	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.25)	3.9 ↓ (3.93)	2.66 ↓ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stuttgart
39.5%

Draw
24.6%

Borussia Dortmund
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

24.2%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

25.9%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stuttgart has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stuttgart than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Stuttgart, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	20.8%	54.2%

Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Stuttgart will win (votes: 6 - 26.1%). Borussia D will win (votes: 12 - 52.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 21.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Borussia D: 31.8% – 72.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.34) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Borussia D (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Stuttgart (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Stuttgart (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Borussia D (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bredlow F. (G) 29. Jeltsch F. 24. Chabot J. 7. Mittelstadt M. 4. Vagnoman J. 21. Promel G. 6. Stiller A. 10. Fuhrich C. 11. El Khannouss B. 26. Undav D. (C) 9. Demirovic E.	1. Kobel G. (G) 22. Gadou J. 3. Anton W. 4. Schlotterbeck N. 26. Ryerson J. 25. Veerman J. 8. Nmecha F. 24. Svensson D. 18. Nwaneri E. 14. Beier M. 9. Guirassy S.
Substitutes
2. Al Dakhil A. 33. Funk M. (G) 3. Hendriks R. 16. Karazor A. 18. Leweling J. 28. Nartey N. 17. Pejcinovic D. 44. Sauer L. 47. Spalt Y.	7. Bellingham J. 5. Bensebaini R. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 40. Inacio S. 19. Karetsas K. 33. Meyer A. (G) 49. Reggiani L. 20. Sabitzer M. 21. Silva F.
Coaches
Hoeness S.	Kovac N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Demirovic E. 🟨,
17', Stiller A. 🟨,
32', Schlotterbeck N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Veerman J. 🟨,
57', Gadou J. 🟨,
62', Veerman J. ↓, Bellingham J. ↑,
62', Nwaneri E. ↓, Karetsas K. ↑,
64', Undav D. ↓, Pejcinovic D. ↑,
64', Fuhrich C. ↓, Leweling J. ↑,
70', 0 - 1, Beier M. ⚽, Bellingham J. (A),
74', Guirassy S. ↓, Silva F. ↑,
81', Bellingham J. 🟨,
82', Ryerson J. 🟨,
82', Beier M. ↓, Sabitzer M. ↑,
82', Ryerson J. ↓, Bensebaini R. ↑,
84', El Khannouss B. ↓, Sauer L. ↑,
84', Promel G. ↓, Nartey N. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stuttgart won 3.

Stuttgart has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Borussia D is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Borussia D may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Stuttgart: Assignon L. (Shoulder Injury) Diehl J. (Muscle Injury) Jaquez L. (Muscle Injury) Seimen D. (Thigh Injury) Tomas T. (Muscle Injury) Zagadou D. (Muscle Injury).

Confirmed absences for Borussia D: Can E. (Knee Injury) Kaba M. (Injury) Konstantelias G. (Knee Injury) Lerma J. (Muscle Injury) Mane F. (Muscle Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Stuttgart: Herwerth M. (Injury) Nartey N. (Thigh Injury) Stiller A. (Knee Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Stuttgart has recorded 7 wins, 2 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 31:45 (averaging 1.6:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Stuttgart against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 1 draw, and 6 losses, with 17:23 goals (averaging 1.5:2.1 per game).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Dortmund: 9.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9:2	7	12
15	Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6:9	-3	3

Last Results with these Odds

Stuttgart - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 42.12%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfB Stuttgart
German Bundesliga
12.09.26	Hoffenheim - Stuttgart	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.09.26	Stuttgart - Viking Stavanger	3:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
04.09.26	Stuttgart - Köln	4:1 ✺
28.08.26	Bayern Munich - Stuttgart	5:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
21.08.26	Hansa Rostock - Stuttgart	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWWLW
- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
12.09.26	Borussia Dortmund - Paderborn	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Borussia Dortmund - Villarreal	3:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
05.09.26	Hoffenheim - Borussia Dortmund	2:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
01.09.26	HEBC Hamburg - Borussia Dortmund	0:5 ✺
German Bundesliga
29.08.26	Borussia Dortmund - Hamburger SV	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
04.04.26	Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund	0:2
22.11.25	Borussia Dortmund - Stuttgart	3:3
08.02.25	Borussia Dortmund - Stuttgart	1:2
22.09.24	Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund	5:1
06.04.24	Borussia Dortmund - Stuttgart	0:1
German DFB Pokal
06.12.23	Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund	2:0
German Bundesliga
11.11.23	Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund	2:1

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