Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 4

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: MHPArena (Stuttgart) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Stieler T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 1, CANAL+ Sport 1, Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP
Albania	18:30	Tring Sport 3
Angola	17:30	Z Sports 1
Argentina	13:30	Disney+
Armenia	20:30	Setanta Sports 2
Asia	—	MBC Action
Australia	02:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	18:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Azerbaijan	20:30	Idman TV, Setanta Sports 2
Belgium	18:30	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Bosnia And Herzegovina	18:30	Arena Sport 4P
Brazil	13:30	SportyNet, Xsports
Bulgaria	19:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	12:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	13:30	Disney+
Colombia	11:30	Disney+
Croatia	18:30	SportKlub 1
Czech Republic	18:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	18:30	See, Viaplay, V Sport Ultra
Estonia	19:30	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	—	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	19:30	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Ultra
France	18:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Georgia	20:30	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	18:30	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	19:30	Nova Sports 3
Hong Kong	00:30	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	18:30	Arena 4
Iceland	16:30	Viaplay
India	22:00	ZEE5
Ireland	17:30	NOW
Japan	01:30	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	22:30	Setanta Sports 2
Kosovo	18:30	Arena Premium 3
Kyrgyzstan	22:30	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	23:30	beIN Connect
Lithuania	19:30	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	00:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	18:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	10:30	FOX One, FOX Sports
Moldova	19:30	Setanta Sports 2
Mongolia	00:30	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	18:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	04:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	RUSH Sports 3 Caribbean
North Macedonia	18:30	Arena Premium 3
Norway	18:30	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Peru	11:30	Disney+
Philippines	00:30	beIN Connect
Poland	18:30	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	17:30	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	19:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	19:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	19:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	18:30	Arena Premium 3, Arena Premium 5
Singapore	00:30	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	18:30	Nova Sport 3, Sport TV2, Voyo
South Korea	01:30	Coupang Play
Spain	18:30	DAZN Espana, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	18:30	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	18:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Top Event
Taiwan	00:30	ELTA Sports 2
Tajikistan	21:30	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	23:30	beIN Connect
Turkmenistan	21:30	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	19:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United Kingdom	17:30	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Football, Sky Sports Mix, Sky Sports Mix
Uruguay	13:30	Disney+
Usa	12:30	NBC Universo, NBC, Peacock, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW
Uzbekistan	21:30	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	12:30	Disney+
International	16:30	OneFootball TV


	Stuttgart		Borussia Dortmund

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.9	2.63	Watch
	2.35	3.90	2.65
	2.45	3.6	2.65	Watch
	2.48	4	2.73
	2.49	4.12	2.59	Watch
	2.4	3.8	2.65
	2.53	3.89	2.76	Watch
	2.33	4	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.25)	3.9 ↓ (3.93)	2.66 ↓ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stuttgart
39.5%

Draw
24.6%

Borussia Dortmund
36%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.1%

24.2%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

25%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stuttgart has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stuttgart than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	20.8%	54.2%

Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Stuttgart will win (votes: 6 - 26.1%). Borussia D will win (votes: 12 - 52.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 21.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Borussia D: 31.8% – 72.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.34) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Borussia D (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Stuttgart (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Stuttgart (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Borussia D (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bredlow F. (G) 29. Jeltsch F. 24. Chabot J. 7. Mittelstadt M. 4. Vagnoman J. 21. Promel G. 6. Stiller A. 10. Fuhrich C. 11. El Khannouss B. 26. Undav D. (C) 9. Demirovic E.	1. Kobel G. (G) 22. Gadou J. 3. Anton W. 4. Schlotterbeck N. 26. Ryerson J. 25. Veerman J. 8. Nmecha F. 24. Svensson D. 18. Nwaneri E. 14. Beier M. 9. Guirassy S.
Substitutes
2. Al Dakhil A. 33. Funk M. (G) 3. Hendriks R. 16. Karazor A. 18. Leweling J. 28. Nartey N. 17. Pejcinovic D. 44. Sauer L. 47. Spalt Y.	7. Bellingham J. 5. Bensebaini R. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 40. Inacio S. 19. Karetsas K. 33. Meyer A. (G) 49. Reggiani L. 20. Sabitzer M. 21. Silva F.
Coaches
Hoeness S.	Kovac N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Demirovic E. 🟨,
17', Stiller A. 🟨,
32', Schlotterbeck N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Veerman J. 🟨,
57', Gadou J. 🟨,
62', Veerman J. ↓, Bellingham J. ↑,
62', Nwaneri E. ↓, Karetsas K. ↑,
64', Undav D. ↓, Pejcinovic D. ↑,
64', Fuhrich C. ↓, Leweling J. ↑,
70', 0 - 1, Beier M. ⚽, Bellingham J. (A),
74', Guirassy S. ↓, Silva F. ↑,
81', Bellingham J. 🟨,
82', Ryerson J. 🟨,
82', Beier M. ↓, Sabitzer M. ↑,
82', Ryerson J. ↓, Bensebaini R. ↑,
84', El Khannouss B. ↓, Sauer L. ↑,
84', Promel G. ↓, Nartey N. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stuttgart won 3.

Stuttgart has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Borussia D is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Borussia D may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Stuttgart: Assignon L. (Shoulder Injury) Diehl J. (Muscle Injury) Jaquez L. (Muscle Injury) Seimen D. (Thigh Injury) Tomas T. (Muscle Injury) Zagadou D. (Muscle Injury).

Confirmed absences for Borussia D: Can E. (Knee Injury) Kaba M. (Injury) Konstantelias G. (Knee Injury) Lerma J. (Muscle Injury) Mane F. (Muscle Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Stuttgart: Herwerth M. (Injury) Nartey N. (Thigh Injury) Stiller A. (Knee Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Stuttgart has recorded 7 wins, 2 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 31:45 (averaging 1.6:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Stuttgart against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 1 draw, and 6 losses, with 17:23 goals (averaging 1.5:2.1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Dortmund	7	5	2	0	12:4	8	17
15	Stuttgart	7	2	0	5	10:13	-3	6

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Dortmund: 7.11%

Last Results with these Odds

Stuttgart - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 42.12%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfB Stuttgart
German Bundesliga
12.09.26	Hoffenheim - Stuttgart	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.09.26	Stuttgart - Viking Stavanger	3:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
04.09.26	Stuttgart - Köln	4:1 ✺
28.08.26	Bayern Munich - Stuttgart	5:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
21.08.26	Hansa Rostock - Stuttgart	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWWLW
- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
12.09.26	Borussia Dortmund - Paderborn	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Borussia Dortmund - Villarreal	3:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
05.09.26	Hoffenheim - Borussia Dortmund	2:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
01.09.26	HEBC Hamburg - Borussia Dortmund	0:5 ✺
German Bundesliga
29.08.26	Borussia Dortmund - Hamburger SV	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
04.04.26	Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund	0:2
22.11.25	Borussia Dortmund - Stuttgart	3:3
08.02.25	Borussia Dortmund - Stuttgart	1:2
22.09.24	Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund	5:1
06.04.24	Borussia Dortmund - Stuttgart	0:1
German DFB Pokal
06.12.23	Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund	2:0
German Bundesliga
11.11.23	Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund	2:1

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