Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 21

Date: 30 January 2024, Tuesday

Location: VBS Community Stadium (London)

Referee: Miles J. (Eng)


	Sutton United		Harrogate Town

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.5	2.7
	2.55	3.25	2.65
	2.55	3.4	2.7
	2.48	3.35	2.74
	2.61	3.38	2.82
	2.45	3.4	2.6
	2.51	3.38	2.67	Watch
	2.4	3.4	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (2.03)	3.38 ↓ (3.51)	2.69 ↓ (3.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sutton United
37.4%

Draw
27.8%

Harrogate Town
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

26.8%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.6%

26.6%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sutton United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sutton United's form might have worsened.

Harrogate Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Harrogate Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sutton United than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sutton United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Harrogate Town than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Harrogate Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	25%	35%

Sutton United - Harrogate Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Sutton will win (votes: 8 - 40%). Harrogate will win (votes: 7 - 35%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sutton: 18.5% – 61.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Steve Arnold 23. Ryan Jackson 4. Omar Sowunmi 6. Louis John 22. Joseph Kizzi 10. Harry Beautyman 16. Craig Clay 7. Josh Coley 8. Christian N'Guessan 33. Lee Angol 9. Harry Smith	21. Jonathan Mitchell 16. Rodney Troy McDonald 15. Anthony O'Connor 23. Matty Foulds 20. Kayne Ramsey 22. Stephen Dooley 18. Jack Muldoon 7. George Thomson 8. Dean Cornelius 9. Abraham Odoh 24. Josh March
Substitutes
40. Aiden Anthony O'Brien 13. Bradley House 14. Craig Dundas 18. Dion Pereira 11. Omari Patrick 19. Tope Fadahunsi	. Emmanuel Ilesanmi . Finn O'Boyle 19. Jeremy Sivi 4. Josh Falkingham 13. Lewis Thomas 30. Liam Gibson 6. Warren Burrell
Coaches
Gray M.	Weaver S.

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 16).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sutton won 5.

Recent matches Sutton is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Harrogate is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Harrogate could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Sutton will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Sutton won 7 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 14-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Sutton won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sutton United
English League Two
27.01.24	Walsall - Sutton United	1:1 ✺
23.01.24	Mansfield Town - Sutton United	1:1 ✺
13.01.24	Sutton United - Barrow	2:2 ✺
English FA Cup
06.01.24	Plymouth Argyle - Sutton United	3:1 ✺
English League Two
01.01.24	Sutton United - Newport County	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 TTTLT
- Harrogate Town
English League Two
13.01.24	Forest Green Rovers - Harrogate Town	0:2 ✺
06.01.24	Harrogate Town - Doncaster Rovers	3:1 ✺
01.01.24	Morecambe - Harrogate Town	2:2 ✺
29.12.23	Harrogate Town - Tranmere Rovers	0:2 ✺
26.12.23	Harrogate Town - Accrington Stanley	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
28.01.23	Harrogate Town - Sutton United	0:1
03.09.22	Sutton United - Harrogate Town	2:1
07.05.22	Harrogate Town - Sutton United	0:2
English EFL Trophy
25.01.22	Sutton United - Harrogate Town	1:0
English League Two
18.12.21	Sutton United - Harrogate Town	1:0
English National League
30.11.19	Sutton United - Harrogate Town	3:1
28.09.19	Harrogate Town - Sutton United	2:0

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