Match Info

ENGLAND: FA CUP - 1/32-FINALS

Date: 6 January 2024, Saturday

Location: Home Park (Plymouth)

Referee: Finnie W. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Discovery+, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay


	Plymouth Argyle		Sutton United

	1	X	2
	1.29	6.5	8	Watch
	1.29	6	9.25
	1.3	6	10	Watch
	1.29	5.98	9.4
	1.28	5.98	9.29
	1.2	5.5	9.5
	1.3	5.95	9	Watch
	1.29	5.8	8.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (1.36)	5.96 ↑ (5.21)	9.11 ↑ (7.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Plymouth Argyle
73.8%

Draw
15.8%

Sutton United
10.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.8%

18%

13.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.9%

17%

14%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Plymouth Argyle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Sutton United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Plymouth Argyle than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Plymouth Argyle that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sutton United than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	8.3%	8.3%

Plymouth Argyle - Sutton United Predictions

Users Predictions: Plymouth Argyle will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Hazard C. (G) 8. Edwards J. (C) 6. Scarr D. 22. Galloway B. 14. Miller M. 28. Cundle L. 20. Randell A. 11. Wright C. 10. Whittaker M. 9. Hardie R. 35. Issaka F.	21. Bouzanis D. (G) 22. Kizzi J. 4. Sowunmi O. 5. Goodliffe B. 23. Jackson R. 26. Gape D. 16. Clay C. 24. Milsom R. 7. Coley J. 10. Beautyman H. (C) 33. Angol L.
Substitutes
15. Bundu M. 25. Burton C. (G) 7. Butcher M. 17. Gibson L. 4. Houghton J. 29. Kesler Hayden K. 2. Mumba B. 5. Pleguezuelo J. 23. Waine B.	25. Arnold S. (G) 14. Dundas C. 15. Eastmond C. 19. Fadahunsi T. 29. Kasimu H. 8. N'Guessan C. 11. Patrick O. 1. Rose J. (G)
Coaches
Foster I.	Goodliffe J.

Preview

Replayed if draw.

Recent matches Plymouth is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Sutton is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Plymouth is absolute favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Plymouth Argyle
English League Championship
01.01.24	Plymouth Argyle - Watford	3:3 ✺
29.12.23	Southampton - Plymouth Argyle	2:1 ✺
26.12.23	Cardiff City - Plymouth Argyle	2:2 ✺
23.12.23	Plymouth Argyle - Birmingham City	3:3 ✺
16.12.23	Plymouth Argyle - Rotherham United	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TLTTW
- Sutton United
English League Two
01.01.24	Sutton United - Newport County	1:1 ✺
29.12.23	Gillingham - Sutton United	1:0 ✺
26.12.23	AFC Wimbledon - Sutton United	0:1 ✺
23.12.23	Sutton United - Mansfield Town	0:2 ✺
16.12.23	Stockport County - Sutton United	8:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 TLWLL

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