Match Info

EFL Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 17 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Swansea.com Stadium (Swansea)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
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Venezuela	Disney+


	Swansea City		Nottingham Forest

	1	X	2
	4.33	4	1.68	Watch
	4.7	3.95	1.7	Watch
	4.79	4.13	1.63
	3.66	3.56	1.94	Watch
	4.41	4.07	1.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.38 ↓ (4.97)	3.94 ↓ (3.95)	1.74 ↑ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Swansea City
21.6%

Draw
24%

Nottingham Forest
54.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.8%

23.6%

57.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23%

19.3%

47.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Swansea City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Nottingham Forest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swansea City than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nottingham Forest, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20.8%	4.2%	75%

Swansea City - Nottingham Forest Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Swansea will win (votes: 5 - 22.7%). Nottingham will win (votes: 16 - 72.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nottingham: 54.1% – 91.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Swansea (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Nottingham (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Swansea (1.65) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Swansea (votes: 7 - 50%). Nottingham (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fisher A. (G) 2. Key J. 26. Casey K. 15. Burgess C. (C) 16. Samuels-Smith I. 17. Franco G. 30. Galbraith E. 21. Manuel Hedilazio B. 8. Yalcouye M. 10. Eom J. 33. Idah A.	13. John Victor (G) 37. Savona N. 30. Boly W. 4. Morato 35. Zinchenko O. 22. Yates R. (C) 24. McAtee J. 12. Douglas Luiz 21. Hutchinson O. 29. Bakwa D. 19. Igor Jesus
Substitutes
5. Cabango B. 20. Cullen L. 29. Farman P. (G) 27. Inoussa Z. 35. Ronald 14. Tymon J. 9. Vipotnik Z. 24. Wales B. 7. Widell M.	44. Abbott Z. 9. Awoniyi T. 23. Cunha 10. Gibbs-White M. 18. Gunn A. (G) 7. Hudson-Odoi C. 15. Kalimuendo A. 14. Ndoye D. 6. Sangare I.
Coaches
Sheehan A.	Postecoglou A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
15', 0 - 1, Igor Jesus ⚽,
31', Galbraith E. 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 2, Igor Jesus ⚽, Hutchinson O. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Igor Jesus ↓, Kalimuendo A. ↑,
46', Morato ↓, Cunha ↑,
54', Savona N. 🟨,
55', Burgess C. 🟨,
58', Key J. 🟨,
62', Bakwa D. ↓, Hudson-Odoi C. ↑,
62', Douglas Luiz ↓, Gibbs-White M. ↑,
63', Samuels-Smith I. ↓, Tymon J. ↑,
63', Franco G. ↓, Widell M. ↑,
64', Manuel Hedilazio B. ↓, Ronald ↑,
68', 1 - 2, Burgess C. ⚽, Eom J. (A),
74', Gibbs-White M. 🟨,
79', Idah A. ↓, Vipotnik Z. ↑,
84', McAtee J. ↓, Sangare I. ↑,
86', Yalcouye M. ↓, Cullen L. ↑,
88', Widell M. 🟨,
90+3', 2 - 2, Vipotnik Z. ⚽, Cullen L. (A),
90+7', 3 - 2, Burgess C. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Swansea won 3.

Swansea is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Nottingham's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Swansea has had a series of home games.

In this match, Nottingham is the team to beat.

There will not play in Swansea: Fulton J. (Injury) Santos R. (Knee Injury) Stamenic M. (Injury)

There will not play in Nottingham: Aina O. (Hamstring Injury) Dominguez N. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Nottingham: Murillo (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Swansea won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:16. (average 1.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Swansea won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.4:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Swansea City
English League Championship
13.09.25	Swansea City - Hull City	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Sheffield Wednesday - Swansea City	0:2 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Swansea City - Plymouth Argyle	2:1 penalties ✺
English League Championship
23.08.25	Swansea City - Watford	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Swansea City - Sheffield United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TWWTW
- Nottingham Forest
English Premier League
13.09.25	Arsenal - Nottingham Forest	3:0 ✺
31.08.25	Nottingham Forest - West Ham United	0:3 ✺
24.08.25	Crystal Palace - Nottingham Forest	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Nottingham Forest - Brentford	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Nottingham Forest - Al-Qadisiya	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LLTWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
30.04.22	Nottingham Forest - Swansea City	5:1
11.12.21	Swansea City - Nottingham Forest	1:4
17.02.21	Swansea City - Nottingham Forest	1:0
English FA Cup
23.01.21	Swansea City - Nottingham Forest	5:1
English League Championship
29.11.20	Nottingham Forest - Swansea City	0:1
15.07.20	Nottingham Forest - Swansea City	2:2
14.09.19	Swansea City - Nottingham Forest	0:1

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