Match Info

League Two - Round 35

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: County Ground (Swindon)

Referee: Ricardo R. (Eng)


	Swindon Town		Bristol Rovers

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.5	3.7
	1.93	3.6	3.7
	1.92	3.55	3.7
	2.04	3.62	3.84
	1.93	3.52	3.76	Watch
	1.95	3.3	3.6
	1.93	3.53	3.74	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.88)	3.52 ↑ (3.51)	3.72 ↓ (3.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Swindon Town
48.3%

Draw
26.6%

Bristol Rovers
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

26.5%

24.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5%

25.9%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Swindon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Bristol Rovers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bristol Rovers than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.3%	0%	7.7%

Swindon Town - Bristol Rovers Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Swindon (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Swindon Town will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ripley C. (G) 5. Wright W. 22. Knight-Lebel J. 8. Clarke O. (C) 19. Snowdon J. 18. Kilkenny G. 25. Borland A. 26. Batty J. 23. Drinan A. 28. Palmer O. 30. Hoilett J.	13. Young B. (G) 17. Balmer K. 2. Senior J. 5. Kilgour A. (C) 6. Mola C. 10. Akhamrich Y. 14. Thompson-Sommers K. 36. Smallwood R. 15. De Havilland R. 27. Quigley J. 19. Harrison E.
Substitutes
31. Bodin B. 24. Holman F. 34. Kirkman B. 33. McGregor J. 7. Nichols T. 29. Olakigbe M. 12. Ward L. (G)	29. Cavegn F. 24. Leigh T. 12. Lockyer T. 35. Rijks M. 1. Southwood L. (G) 3. Sparkes J. 11. Thomas L.
Coaches
Holloway I.	Evans S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', Balmer K. 🟨,
32', Clarke O. 🟨,
43', 0 - 1, Thompson-Sommers K. ⚽, Harrison E. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', 1 - 1, Palmer O. ⚽, Batty J. (A),
67', Harrison E. ↓, Cavegn F. ↑,
69', Hoilett J. ↓, Olakigbe M. ↑,
69', Wright W. ↓, Kirkman B. ↑,
69', Snowdon J. ↓, Holman F. ↑,
83', Senior J. 🟨,
88', Quigley J. 🟨,
89', Batty J. ↓, Bodin B. ↑,
90', Smallwood R. 🟨,
90+3', De Havilland R. ↓, Thomas L. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 20).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Swindon might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:11. (average 1.5:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Swindon won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:3. (average 1.4:0.6).

Outrights of English League Two for now

Bristol Rovers: 8.17% Swindon: 0.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Bristol Rovers	10	5	0	5	15:17	-2	15
17	Swindon	10	3	2	5	9:14	-5	11

Last Results with these Odds

Swindon Town - the odds 1.88 are the expected chance of winning is 49.44%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Swindon Town
English League Two
21.02.26	Swindon Town - Crewe Alexandra	1:2 ✺
17.02.26	Barnet - Swindon Town	1:2 ✺
14.02.26	Shrewsbury Town - Swindon Town	3:1 ✺
11.02.26	Swindon Town - Newport County	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Swindon Town - Oldham Athletic	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LWLWW
- Bristol Rovers
English League Two
21.02.26	Bristol Rovers - Grimsby Town	3:1 ✺
17.02.26	Oldham Athletic - Bristol Rovers	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Cambridge United - Bristol Rovers	3:1 ✺
07.02.26	Bristol Rovers - Chesterfield	2:3 ✺
03.02.26	Bristol Rovers - Walsall	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
13.12.25	Bristol Rovers - Swindon Town	0:3
English EFL Trophy
08.10.24	Swindon Town - Bristol Rovers	4:0
18.10.22	Bristol Rovers - Swindon Town	3:0
English League Two
22.01.22	Swindon Town - Bristol Rovers	1:1
02.10.21	Bristol Rovers - Swindon Town	1:3
English League One
23.03.21	Bristol Rovers - Swindon Town	0:1
21.11.20	Swindon Town - Bristol Rovers	1:0

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