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Current Win Probability
Swindon Town 37%
Draw 26.8%
Crewe Alexandra 36.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
37.7%
26.3%
36%
Our Initial ML Estimation
38%
26.5%
35.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Swindon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)
Crewe Alexandra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (-0.4%)
Swindon Town - Crewe Alexandra Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Ripley C. (G) 2. Clark M. 5. Negru S. 16. Inwood S. 26. Butler D. 27. Munda A. 25. Thomson J. 8. Clarke O. (C) 7. Nichols T. 23. Drinan A. 29. Hackford A.
1. Booth T. (G) 2. Billington L. (C) 6. Offord L. 12. Stephenson J. 4. Ure K. 19. Lunt O. 10. White J. 14. Gibson J. 11. Tabiner J. 9. March J. 29. Thibaut A.
Substitutes
6. Ball J. 14. Butterworth D. 34. Kirkman B. 39. Millard L. 19. Snowdon J. 24. Virtue M. 12. Ward L. (G)
20. Agius C. 30. Dancey S. 17. Holicek M. 13. Lawlor I. (G) 23. McNeill C. 32. Moore L. 8. Thomas C.
Coaches
Holloway I.
Bell L.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Clarke O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', White J. ↓, Holicek M. ↑,
59', Tabiner J. ↓, Thomas C. ↑,
59', Thibaut A. ↓, Agius C. ↑,
60', 0 - 1, Gibson J. ⚽, March J. (A),
63', Nichols T. ↓, Snowdon J. ↑,
64', Hackford A. ↓, Millard L. ↑,
64', Munda A. ↓, Virtue M. ↑,
64', Holicek M. 🟨,
73', Clarke O. ↓, Butterworth D. ↑,
83', Gibson J. ↓, McNeill C. ↑,
90+6', Ripley C. 🟨,
Preview
An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 13th and 3rd in the Promotion - League One).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 1.
Swindon has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
Performances by Crewe have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Crewe may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
Confirmed absences for Swindon: Holman F.
(Inactive)
Kilkenny G.
(Inactive)
Majekodunmi K.
(Red Card)
McGregor J.
(Injury)
Middlemas B.
(Inactive)
Palmer O.
(Inactive)
Smith H.
(Knee Injury)
Snowdon J.
(Inactive)
Tafazolli R.
(Inactive).
Doubtful / questionable for Swindon: Glatzel P.
(Inactive).
Doubtful / questionable for Crewe: Demetriou M.
(Inactive)
Hutchinson R.
(Inactive).
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Swindon has recorded 8 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 34:28 (averaging 1.7:1.4 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Swindon against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with 17:15 goals (averaging 1.9:1.7 per game).
Outrights of English League Two for now
Crewe: 3.91% Swindon: 0.84%
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
3
Crewe
10
4
6
0
12:7
5
18
17
Swindon
10
3
2
5
9:14
-5
11
Last Results with these Odds
Crewe Alexandra - the odds 2.58 are the expected chance of winning is 35.98%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.
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Ripley C. (G) 
Clark M. 
Negru S. 
Inwood S. 
Thomson J. 
Drinan A. 
Holicek M. 
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