Match Info

ENGLAND: League Two - Round 7

Date: 21 September 2024, Saturday

Location: County Ground (Swindon)

Referee: Brook C. (Eng)


	Swindon Town		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.5	3.7	Watch
	2	3.5	3.5
	2	3.6	3.5	Watch
	2.02	3.59	3.69
	2	3.5	3.58	Watch
	2.05	3.5	3.6
	1.93	3.53	3.74	Watch
	2	3.6	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.3)	3.54 ↑ (3.52)	3.6 ↑ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Swindon Town
47.3%

Draw
26.6%

Carlisle United
26.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

26.7%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

25.8%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Swindon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Swindon Town's performance.

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Carlisle United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Swindon Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carlisle United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Swindon Town - Carlisle United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bycroft J. (G) 2. Sobowale T. 5. Wright W. (C) 20. Freckleton M. 17. King J. 7. Cotterill J. 18. Kilkenny G. 22. Butterworth D. 27. Cox G. 21. Tshimanga K. 9. Glatzel P.	1. Lewis H. (G) 2. Davies A. 26. Barclay B. 5. Lavelle S. 3. Harper C. 12. Biggins H. 21. McGeouch D. 22. Mellish J. 29. Armstrong L. 10. Wyke Ch. (C) 11. Jones J.
Substitutes
12. Barden D. (G) 16. Cain J. 23. Drinan A. 11. McGurk S. 31. Minturn H. 39. Mitchell D. 6. Ofoborh N.	13. Breeze G. (G) 25. Dudik A. 18. Ellis J. 17. Neal H. 32. O'Donoghue F. 24. Sadi D. 16. Vela J.
Coaches
Kennedy M.	Birch M.

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 18 and 22).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Swindon won 1.

Swindon is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Carlisle has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Swindon will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Swindon won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 22-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Swindon won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 12-11.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Swindon Town
English League Two
14.09.24	Swindon Town - Newport County	4:0 ✺
07.09.24	Barrow - Swindon Town	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
03.09.24	Exeter City - Swindon Town	2:1 ✺
English League Two
31.08.24	Swindon Town - Notts County	1:2 ✺
24.08.24	Crewe Alexandra - Swindon Town	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLLLT
- Carlisle United
English League Two
14.09.24	Carlisle United - Fleetwood Town	2:3 ✺
07.09.24	Bradford City - Carlisle United	2:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
03.09.24	Carlisle United - Nottingham Forest U21	1:2 ✺
English League Two
31.08.24	Carlisle United - Tranmere Rovers	1:2 ✺
24.08.24	Milton Keynes Dons - Carlisle United	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
11.03.23	Swindon Town - Carlisle United	1:2
13.08.22	Carlisle United - Swindon Town	1:1
19.02.22	Carlisle United - Swindon Town	0:3
14.08.21	Swindon Town - Carlisle United	1:2
08.02.20	Carlisle United - Swindon Town	1:1
10.08.19	Swindon Town - Carlisle United	3:2
09.03.19	Carlisle United - Swindon Town	2:1

Upcoming Matches