Match Info

League Two - Round 6

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Alexandra Stadium (Crewe)

Referee: Russell M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Crewe Alexandra		Swindon Town

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.4	3.7
	2.05	3.4	3.4
	1.98	3.55	3.45
	2.02	3.6	3.65
	3.63	3.68	1.89	Watch
	2	3.3	3.5
	2.04	3.52	3.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.26)	3.49 ↑ (3.38)	3.3 ↑ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crewe Alexandra
43.1%

Draw
27.6%

Swindon Town
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

27.8%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

27.3%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crewe Alexandra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Swindon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	25%	12.5%

Crewe Alexandra - Swindon Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Crewe will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Swindon will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Crewe: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Crewe (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0, 1st Half - Swindon (2.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Crewe (votes: 2 - 50%). Swindon (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Booth T. (G) 2. Billington L. 18. Connolly J. 5. Demetriou M. (C) 3. Hutchinson R. 19. Lunt O. 23. Powell J. 26. O'Reilly T. 6. Sanders M. H. 20. Agius C. 24. March J.	1. Ripley C. (G) 5. Wright W. (C) 3. Mabete F. 16. Wilson-Brown T. 19. Snowdon J. 7. Nichols T. 18. Kilkenny G. 26. Munroe F. 44. Oldaker D. 9. Glatzel P. 23. Drinan A.
Substitutes
22. Croker P. 14. Finney C. 16. Golding J. 31. Moult L. 36. Tezgel E. 29. Thibaut A. 13. Waller S. (G)	31. Bodin B. 14. Butterworth D. 8. Clarke O. 20. Ehibhatiomhan P. 33. McGregor J. 35. Palmer O. 12. Ward L. (G)
Coaches
Bell L.	Holloway I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
8', 0 - 1, Kilkenny G. ⚽, Wright W. (A),
35', 0 - 2, Glatzel P. ⚽,
41', 0 - 3, Drinan A. ⚽, Oldaker D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Wilson-Brown T. ↓, Clarke O. ↑,
46', Billington L. ↓, Tezgel E. ↑,
46', Powell J. ↓, Golding J. ↑,
52', Snowdon J. ↓, McGregor J. ↑,
56', Nichols T. 🟨,
61', Glatzel P. ↓, Palmer O. ↑,
75', Connolly J. ↓, Moult L. ↑,
75', Agius C. ↓, Finney C. ↑,
76', Nichols T. ↓, Ehibhatiomhan P. ↑,
76', Drinan A. ↓, Butterworth D. ↑,
82', Hutchinson R. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Crewe won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Crewe is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Crewe: Tabiner J. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Swindon: Ball J. (Knee Injury) Clarke O. (Ankle Injury) Smith H. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Crewe won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 27:33. (average 1.4:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Crewe won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:15. (average 1.3:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Crewe Alexandra - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 41.58%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Swindon Town - the odds 3.07 are the expected chance of winning is 30.64%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Crewe Alexandra
English League Two
23.08.25	Gillingham - Crewe Alexandra	1:0 ✺
19.08.25	Fleetwood Town - Crewe Alexandra	1:4 ✺
16.08.25	Crewe Alexandra - Crawley Town	1:0 ✺
English League Cup
12.08.25	Stockport County - Crewe Alexandra	3:1 ✺
English League Two
09.08.25	Crewe Alexandra - Accrington Stanley	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LWWLW
- Swindon Town
English League Two
23.08.25	Swindon Town - Shrewsbury Town	2:1 ✺
19.08.25	Swindon Town - Barnet	0:2 ✺
16.08.25	Oldham Athletic - Swindon Town	1:2 ✺
English League Cup
12.08.25	Cardiff City - Swindon Town	2:1 ✺
English League Two
09.08.25	Swindon Town - Cambridge United	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
11.01.25	Swindon Town - Crewe Alexandra	0:0
24.08.24	Crewe Alexandra - Swindon Town	0:0
13.01.24	Crewe Alexandra - Swindon Town	2:1
12.08.23	Swindon Town - Crewe Alexandra	2:2
29.04.23	Crewe Alexandra - Swindon Town	2:1
19.11.22	Swindon Town - Crewe Alexandra	0:1
English FA Cup
06.11.21	Crewe Alexandra - Swindon Town	0:3

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