The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Exeter City 61.9%
Draw 21.6%
Swindon Town 16.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
52.9%
25.5%
21.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
49%
23.6%
23.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Exeter City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Exeter City's performance.
Swindon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Swindon Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (-12.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Exeter City that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+6.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Swindon Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
81.2%
6.2%
12.5%
Exeter City - Swindon Town Predictions
Users Predictions:
Exeter City will win
(12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%). Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
37. MacDonald S. (G) 26. Sweeney P. (C) 40. James E. 5. Fitzwater J. 46. Oakes L. 20. Doyle K. 8. Francis E. 3. Purrington B. 17. Watts C. 10. Aitchison J. 11. Alli M.
12. Barden D. (G) 2. Sobowale T. 5. Wright W. (C) 31. Minturn H. 20. Freckleton M. 16. Cain J. 22. Butterworth D. 7. Cotterill J. 18. Kilkenny G. 23. Drinan A. 21. Tshimanga K.
Substitutes
31. Bird J. 48. Cayless L. 19. Cox S. 45. Cummins C. 22. Lee H. (G) 47. Richards J. 15. Yfeko J.
1. Bycroft J. (G) 8. Clarke O. 4. Delaney R. 9. Glatzel P. 17. King J. 33. McGregor J. 10. Smith H.
Coaches
Caldwell G.
Kennedy M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Kilkenny G. ↓, Clarke O. ↑,
46', Watts C. ↓, Richards J. ↑,
56', Doyle K. ↓, Cox S. ↑,
60', Tshimanga K. ↓, Smith H. ↑,
60', Freckleton M. ↓, Delaney R. ↑,
60', Butterworth D. ↓, King J. ↑,
65', 1 - 0, Francis E. ⚽,
68', 1 - 1, Cotterill J. ⚽,
71', Minturn H. 🟨,
74', Alli M. ↓, Bird J. ↑,
74', Drinan A. ↓, Glatzel P. ↑,
78', Smith H. 🟨,
81', 2 - 1, Aitchison J. ⚽, Sweeney P. (A),
87', James E. ↓, Cayless L. ↑,
90+2', Delaney R. 🟨,
Preview
Last 5 head-to-head matches Exeter won 4.
Recent matches Exeter is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Swindon is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
In this match Exeter is a favorite.
Last 12 head-to-head matches Exeter won 8 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 23-13.
Including matches at home between the teams Exeter won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-5.
United-kingdom
Watch
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MacDonald S. (G) 
Sweeney P. (C) 
James E. 
Watts C. 
Aitchison J. 
Glatzel P. 
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