Match Info

League Two - Round 24

Date: 1 January 2026, Thursday

Location: County Ground (Swindon)

Referee: Durkin J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	Paramount+


	Swindon Town		Gillingham

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.4	3.4	Watch
	2.02	3.45	3.45	Watch
	2.09	3.38	3.39	Watch
	2.1	3.25	3.3
	2.05	3.4	3.43	Watch
	2.05	3.4	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↑ (2.04)	3.38 ↓ (3.43)	3.41 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Swindon Town
45.3%

Draw
27.5%

Gillingham
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

26.8%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.8%

25.8%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Swindon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Gillingham has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gillingham than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	10%	10%

Swindon Town - Gillingham Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Swindon (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Swindon Town will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ripley C. (G) 5. Wright W. (C) 17. Tafazolli R. 3. Mabete F. 33. McGregor J. 18. Kilkenny G. 7. Nichols T. 26. Munroe F. 44. Oldaker D. 23. Drinan A. 28. Palmer O.	25. Turner J. (G) 2. Hutton R. 30. Gale S. 5. Smith A. 3. Clark M. 6. Coleman E. 8. Little A. (C) 10. Williams J. 20. Nevitt E. 11. Rowe A. 9. Andrews J.
Substitutes
6. Ball J. 20. Ehibhatiomhan P. 37. Gonzalez D. 34. Kirkman B. 11. Tabor J. 12. Ward L. (G)	23. Dack B. 4. Masterson C. 14. McKenzie R. 1. Morris G. (G) 12. Palmer-Houlden S. 17. Smith J. 19. Vokes S.
Coaches
Holloway I.	Ainsworth G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Mabete F. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
48', Mabete F. ↓, Tabor J. ↑,
59', 1 - 0, Tafazolli R. ⚽, Munroe F. (A),
60', Andrews J. 🟨,
68', Coleman E. ↓, McKenzie R. ↑,
68', Rowe A. ↓, Dack B. ↑,
69', Williams J. ↓, Smith J. ↑,
79', Nevitt E. ↓, Palmer-Houlden S. ↑,
82', Oldaker D. ↓, Ball J. ↑,
83', Clark M. 🟨,
83', Nichols T. 🟨,
84', Andrews J. ↓, Vokes S. ↑,
86', Tabor J. 🟨,
87', Little A. 🟨,
89', Ripley C. 🟨,
90+1', 2 - 0, Drinan A. ⚽, Palmer O. (A),

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ League One and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Swindon is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Swindon: Butterworth D. (Inactive) Clarke O. (Suspended) Minturn H. (Groin Injury) Smith H. (Knee Injury) Wilson-Brown T. (Injury)

There will not play in Gillingham: McCleary G. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Swindon: Bodin B. (Inactive) Delaney R. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Gillingham: Khumbeni N. (Inactive) Williams E. (Shoulder Injury) Wyllie M. (Inactive)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 1 match, drew 9 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 17:27. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Swindon won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:17. (average 1.4:2.1).

Outrights of English League Two for now

Gillingham: 1.86% Swindon: 1.7%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Gillingham	9	3	4	2	11:9	2	13
13	Swindon	9	3	2	4	9:13	-4	11

Last Results with these Odds

Gillingham - the odds 3.25 are the expected chance of winning is 28.2%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Swindon Town
English League Two
29.12.25	Cheltenham Town - Swindon Town	0:2 ✺
26.12.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Swindon Town	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Swindon Town - Crawley Town	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Bristol Rovers - Swindon Town	0:3 ✺
09.12.25	Swindon Town - Cheltenham Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLWWL
- Gillingham FC
English League Two
29.12.25	Gillingham - Colchester United	1:1 ✺
26.12.25	Gillingham - Cambridge United	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Fleetwood Town - Gillingham	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	Gillingham - Barrow	2:2 ✺
06.12.25	Colchester United - Gillingham	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TTLTT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
26.04.25	Gillingham - Swindon Town	1:1
26.10.24	Swindon Town - Gillingham	1:1
13.02.24	Gillingham - Swindon Town	2:2
24.10.23	Swindon Town - Gillingham	0:1
28.01.23	Swindon Town - Gillingham	3:3
03.09.22	Gillingham - Swindon Town	0:0
English League One
13.03.21	Swindon Town - Gillingham	1:3

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