Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 14

Date: 27 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Primeiro de Maio (Sao Bernardo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, SportyNet+, Zapping


	São Bernardo		Confiança

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.68	3.1	4.8
	1.58	3.4	5.35	Watch
	1.71	3.43	6.04
	1.82	3.12	4.85	Watch
	1.75	2.9	5
	1.61	3.32	5.64	Watch
	1.66	3.33	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.66)	3.23 ↓ (3.33)	5.2 ↑ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Bernardo
54.1%

Draw
28.3%

Confiança
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

27%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.1%

26%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for São Bernardo have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Confiança has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Confiança than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

São Bernardo - Confiança Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. São Bernardo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0, 1st Half - São Bernardo (1.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. São Bernardo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Junior Oliveira (G) 32. Bastos R. 26. Dudu Miraima 7. Echapora 35. Foguinho 3. Helder Maciel (C) 22. Leo Duarte 13. Matheus Salustiano 95. Para 59. Pedro Felipe 17. Romisson	1. Felipe Scheibig (G) 10. Breiner C. 5. Luiz Otavio 3. Maicon 11. Maikon Aquino 9. Neto Oliveira 13. Renilson 7. Ronald Camarao 14. Valdo (C) 6. Vicente 2. Weriton
Substitutes
1. Alex Alves (G) 97. Augusto 44. Caio Garcez 90. Felipe Garcia 77. Guilherme Queiroz 19. Henry 28. Joao Paulo 70. Lucas Reis 25. Pedro Carrerette 30. Sillas 84. Vanderlei (G) 31. Victor Andrade	22. Airton 12. Allan (G) 8. Dionisio 21. Jhon Cley 16. Lenon 17. Matheusinho 18. Nicholas 20. Rafinha 19. Renan 15. Thiago Santos
Coaches
Ricardo Catala	Luizinho Vieira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', Maikon Aquino 🟨,
13', Matheus Salustiano 🟨,
39', Foguinho 🟨,
41', Helder Maciel 🟨,
43', 0 - 1, Neto Oliveira ⚽,
45+4', Maicon 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', Echapora ↓, Victor Andrade ↑,
54', Romisson ↓, Joao Paulo ↑,
57', Maikon Aquino ↓, Dionisio ↑,
58', 1 - 1, Bastos R. ⚽,
64', Pedro Felipe 🟨,
66', Vicente 🟨,
71', Vicente 🟨,
72', Dudu Miraima 🟨,
73', Luiz Otavio ↓, Renan ↑,
74', Breiner C. ↓, Airton ↑,
75', Foguinho ↓, Lucas Reis ↑,
75', Pedro Felipe ↓, Felipe Garcia ↑,
76', Dionisio 🟨,
81', Neto Oliveira 🟨,
85', Neto Oliveira ↓, Thiago Santos ↑,
85', Ronald Camarao ↓, Matheusinho ↑,
86', Leo Duarte ↓, Sillas ↑,
89', 🟨,
90+7', Lucas Reis 🟥,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 16).

Now, both teams are in good form.

In this match, São Bernardo is seen as the favorite.

We predict that São Bernardo will win today's game, with odds of 1.71.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, São Bernardo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, São Bernardo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Serie C
20.07.25	Ypiranga - São Bernardo	0:2 ✺
12.07.25	São Bernardo - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
07.07.25	Botafogo PB - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
28.06.25	São Bernardo - Anápolis	3:0 ✺
14.06.25	Ituano - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWTWT
- AD Confiança Aracaju
Brazilian Serie C
20.07.25	Confiança - Tombense	3:2 ✺
12.07.25	Itabaiana - Confiança	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
08.07.25	Vitória Salvador - Confiança	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
05.07.25	Confiança - ABC	1:1 ✺
29.06.25	Figueirense - Confiança	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.2 WTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
18.08.24	Confiança - São Bernardo	2:0
20.05.23	São Bernardo - Confiança	3:1

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