Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 30

Date: 18 March 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadio Marco Druso (Bolzano)

Referee: Volpi M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Südtirol-Alto Adige		SPAL

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.1	3.8	Watch
	2.1	3	3.7
	2.14	3.15	3.6
	2.13	3	3.45
	2.15	3.14	4.06
	2.15	3	3.7
	2.13	3.08	3.8	Watch
	2.07	3.05	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (1.89)	3.07 ↓ (3.25)	3.75 ↓ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Südtirol-Alto Adige
44.3%

Draw
30.7%

SPAL
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.6%

28.2%

23.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.2%

27.3%

22.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Südtirol-Alto Adige has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

SPAL has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Südtirol-Alto Adige than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Südtirol-Alto Adige, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.7%	25%	6.2%

Südtirol Alto Adige - SPAL Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Südtirol will win (votes: 11 - 68.8%). SPAL will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Südtirol: 46.1% – 91.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Südtirol has the most likely position - 4 (28.06%), project points - 60, currently - 48, not chance of relegated, a good chance of prom. playoffs (92%), a chance of promoted (19%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

SPAL has the most likely position - 19 (22.12%), project points - 38, currently - 28, a good chance of relegated (71%), a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.

This event has small quality 30, importance 43, match rating 36. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Südtirol is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

SPAL is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Südtirol will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Südtirol won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Südtirol-Alto Adige
Italian Serie B
11.03.23	Parma - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:0 ✺
05.03.23	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Perugia	2:1 ✺
01.03.23	Benevento - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:2 ✺
25.02.23	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Palermo	1:1 ✺
18.02.23	Nuova Cosenza - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 TWWTT
- SPAL 2013
Italian Serie B
12.03.23	Nuova Cosenza - SPAL	1:0 ✺
05.03.23	SPAL - Cittadella	2:1 ✺
01.03.23	SPAL - Frosinone	0:2 ✺
25.02.23	Genoa - SPAL	3:0 ✺
18.02.23	SPAL - Como	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
29.10.22	SPAL - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:1

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