Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 27

Date: 1 March 2023, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Paolo Mazza (Ferrara)

Referee: Meraviglia F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	SPAL		Frosinone

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.25	2.1	Watch
	3.5	3.25	2.05
	3.9	3.1	2.07
	3.82	3.31	2.15
	3.72	3.3	2.06	Watch
	3.45	3.2	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.67 ↓ (4)	3.24 ↓ (3.3)	2.09 ↑ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SPAL
25.7%

Draw
29.2%

Frosinone
45.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.3%

28.3%

48.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.1%

28%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SPAL has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Frosinone has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Frosinone than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.5%	10.6%	80.9%

SPAL - Frosinone Predictions

Users Predictions: Frosinone will win (38 of 47 users predict this - 80.85%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.6% – 92.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

SPAL has the most likely position - 19 (20.75%), has project points - 40, has currently - 25, has a good chance of relegated (66%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Frosinone has the most likely position - 1 (85.39%), has project points - 76, has currently - 55, has not chance of relegated, has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (2%), has a very good chance of promoted (98%), has a good chance of win league (85%).

This event has quality 35, importance 54, match rating 44. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches SPAL won 2.

SPAL has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Frosinone is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Frosinone will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches SPAL won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 7-15.

Including matches at home between the teams SPAL won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SPAL 2013
Italian Serie B
25.02.23	Genoa - SPAL	3:0 ✺
18.02.23	SPAL - Como	1:1 ✺
11.02.23	Venezia - SPAL	2:1 ✺
04.02.23	SPAL - Bari	3:4 ✺
27.01.23	Cagliari - SPAL	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LTLLL
- Frosinone Calcio
Italian Serie B
24.02.23	Frosinone - Parma	3:4 ✺
18.02.23	Palermo - Frosinone	1:1 ✺
11.02.23	Frosinone - Cittadella	3:0 ✺
04.02.23	Como - Frosinone	0:2 ✺
29.01.23	Frosinone - Benevento	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
08.10.22	Frosinone - SPAL	2:0
30.04.22	SPAL - Frosinone	3:0
18.12.21	Frosinone - SPAL	4:0
04.05.21	SPAL - Frosinone	0:1
04.01.21	Frosinone - SPAL	1:2
Italian Serie A
31.03.19	Frosinone - SPAL	0:1
28.10.18	SPAL - Frosinone	0:3

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