Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 29

Date: 12 March 2023, Sunday

Location: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla (Cosenza)

Referee: Chiffi D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Nuova Cosenza		SPAL

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.2	3	Watch
	2.45	3.1	2.9
	2.5	3.15	2.88
	2.42	3.05	2.95
	2.5	3.07	3.25
	2.7	3	2.7
	2.48	3.05	3.06	Watch
	2.41	3.15	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↓ (2.58)	3.1 ↓ (3.13)	2.96 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nuova Cosenza
37.8%

Draw
30.4%

SPAL
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.7%

29.5%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

28%

36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nuova Cosenza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

SPAL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nuova Cosenza than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.6%	63.2%	5.3%

Nuova Cosenza - SPAL Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Cosenza will win (votes: 6 - 31.6%). SPAL will win (votes: 1 - 5.3%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 63.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 41.5% – 84.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Cosenza has the most likely position - 20 (59.06%), has project points - 34, has currently - 26, has a good chance of relegated (93%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has not chance of win league.

SPAL has the most likely position - 19 (17.05%), has project points - 40, has currently - 28, has a good chance of relegated (56%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has not chance of win league.

This event has small quality 21, importance 45, match rating 33. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cosenza won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Cosenza won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nuova Cosenza
Italian Serie B
06.03.23	Genoa - Nuova Cosenza	4:0 ✺
28.02.23	Nuova Cosenza - Reggina	2:1 ✺
25.02.23	Como - Nuova Cosenza	5:1 ✺
18.02.23	Nuova Cosenza - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:0 ✺
12.02.23	Bari - Nuova Cosenza	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWLTL
- SPAL 2013
Italian Serie B
05.03.23	SPAL - Cittadella	2:1 ✺
01.03.23	SPAL - Frosinone	0:2 ✺
25.02.23	Genoa - SPAL	3:0 ✺
18.02.23	SPAL - Como	1:1 ✺
11.02.23	Venezia - SPAL	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
22.10.22	SPAL - Nuova Cosenza	5:0
05.04.22	SPAL - Nuova Cosenza	2:2
27.11.21	Nuova Cosenza - SPAL	0:1
06.02.21	Nuova Cosenza - SPAL	1:1
03.10.20	SPAL - Nuova Cosenza	1:1

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