Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 28

Date: 5 March 2023, Sunday

Location: Stadio Paolo Mazza (Ferrara)

Referee: Sozza S. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	SPAL		Cittadella

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.1	2.55	Watch
	2.8	3	2.6
	2.8	2.85	2.75
	2.9	2.9	2.55
	3.1	3.02	2.68
	2.97	2.97	2.6	Watch
	2.9	3.05	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↑ (2.67)	2.98 ↑ (2.93)	2.6 ↓ (2.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SPAL
32.4%

Draw
31.5%

Cittadella
36.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.8%

31.6%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.1%

32.8%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SPAL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Cittadella has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cittadella than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.3%	60%	26.7%

SPAL - Cittadella Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. SPAL will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Cittadella will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 13).

SPAL has the most likely position - 19 (21.88%), has project points - 38, has currently - 25, has a good chance of relegated (72%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Cittadella has the most likely position - 13 (11.1%), has project points - 48, has currently - 34, has a small chance of relegated (10%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (15%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 28, importance 38, match rating 33. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches SPAL won 1.

SPAL has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Cittadella is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 11 head-to-head matches SPAL won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 10-10.

Including matches at home between the teams SPAL won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SPAL 2013
Italian Serie B
01.03.23	SPAL - Frosinone	0:2 ✺
25.02.23	Genoa - SPAL	3:0 ✺
18.02.23	SPAL - Como	1:1 ✺
11.02.23	Venezia - SPAL	2:1 ✺
04.02.23	SPAL - Bari	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLTLL
- AS Cittadella
Italian Serie B
01.03.23	Cittadella - Brescia	0:0 ✺
25.02.23	Ternana - Cittadella	1:2 ✺
18.02.23	Cittadella - Reggina	3:2 ✺
11.02.23	Frosinone - Cittadella	3:0 ✺
04.02.23	Cittadella - Ascoli	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
15.10.22	Cittadella - SPAL	0:0
02.03.22	SPAL - Cittadella	0:0
17.10.21	Cittadella - SPAL	0:0
20.03.21	SPAL - Cittadella	1:0
12.12.20	Cittadella - SPAL	2:0
Coppa Italia
28.11.17	SPAL - Cittadella	0:2
Italian Serie B
25.04.17	SPAL - Cittadella	2:1

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