Match Info

Date: 25 September 2021, Saturday


	Tacoma Defiance		Phoenix Rising

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.9	1.52
	5.4	3.85	1.5
	5.4	4.2	1.44
	5.79	4.55	1.49
	5.85	4.4	1.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.54 ↑ (5.47)	4.18 ↑ (4.08)	1.48 ↓ (1.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tacoma Defiance
16.5%

Draw
21.8%

Phoenix Rising
61.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.9%

22.7%

60.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14%

18.8%

72.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tacoma Defiance has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Phoenix Rising has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tacoma Defiance than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Phoenix Rising than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Phoenix Rising could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tacoma Defiance - Phoenix Rising Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 10 and 1).

Tacoma has the most likely position - 6 (25.53%), has project points - 40, has currently - 30, has a chance of playoffs (28%), has a small chance of qtrs (8%), has a very small chance of semis (2%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Phoenix Rising has the most likely position - 1 (99.99%), has project points - 69, has currently - 53, has a very good chance of playoffs (>99%), has a good chance of qtrs (75%), has a good chance of semis (52%), has a chance of final (35%), has a chance of win league (21%).

Tacoma is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Phoenix Rising in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Tacoma could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Phoenix Rising is a favorite.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Tacoma won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 11-25.

Including matches at home between the teams Tacoma won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 7-11.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tacoma Defiance
USL Championship
22.09.21	Tacoma Defiance - Sacramento Republic	0:1 ✺
19.09.21	San Diego Loyal - Tacoma Defiance	1:0 ✺
15.09.21	Oakland Roots - Tacoma Defiance	3:1 ✺
05.09.21	Tacoma Defiance - Phoenix Rising	1:3 ✺
02.09.21	Tacoma Defiance - Las Vegas Lights	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLLLW
- Phoenix Rising
USL Championship
18.09.21	Phoenix Rising - Orange County SC	2:1 ✺
15.09.21	Phoenix Rising - Las Vegas Lights	4:1 ✺
11.09.21	LA Galaxy II - Phoenix Rising	3:4 ✺
05.09.21	Tacoma Defiance - Phoenix Rising	1:3 ✺
28.08.21	Phoenix Rising - New Mexico United	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
05.09.21	Tacoma Defiance - Phoenix Rising	1:3
12.06.21	Phoenix Rising - Tacoma Defiance	3:0
27.08.19	Tacoma Defiance - Phoenix Rising	2:4
20.04.19	Phoenix Rising - Tacoma Defiance	4:0
15.09.18	Tacoma Defiance - Phoenix Rising	0:1
20.07.18	Phoenix Rising - Tacoma Defiance	1:0
20.09.17	Tacoma Defiance - Phoenix Rising	0:1

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