Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 12

Date: 2 August 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Tacuarembó		River Plate Montevideo

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.00	2.25
	2.80	2.88	2.43
	3.04	2.94	2.44
	3	3.13	2.4	Watch
	3.00	2.90	2.40
	3.01	3.00	2.32
	2.95	2.90	2.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↑ (2.78)	2.96 ↓ (3.04)	2.36 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tacuarembó
30.8%

Draw
30.7%

River Plate Montevideo
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

29.7%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

29.8%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tacuarembó has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

River Plate Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tacuarembó than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Tacuarembó - River Plate Montevideo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

(1 - 0)

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 3).

Recent form of Tacuarembó has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

River Plate has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Tacuarembó may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Tacuarembó won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:5. (average 1.5:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Tacuarembó won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	River Plate	21	8	6	7	31:26	5	30
13	Tacuarembo	21	6	6	9	16:23	-7	24

Last Results with these Odds

Tacuarembó - the odds 2.78 are the expected chance of winning is 32.58%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

River Plate Montevideo - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 37.67%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tacuarembó FC
Uruguayan Segunda Division
25.07.26	Tacuarembó - Plaza Colonia	0:2 ✺
13.07.26	La Luz - Tacuarembó	2:0 ✺
05.07.26	Tacuarembó - Cerrito	0:0 ✺
27.06.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Tacuarembó	2:0 ✺
20.06.26	Tacuarembó - Paysandú	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLTLW
- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
18.07.26	Uruguay Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
11.07.26	River Plate Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	3:2 ✺
04.07.26	Oriental de La Paz - River Plate Montevideo	1:2 ✺
28.06.26	River Plate Montevideo - La Luz	0:0 ✺
20.06.26	Colón Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
26.04.15	Tacuarembó - River Plate Montevideo	1:3
19.10.14	River Plate Montevideo - Tacuarembó	2:2

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