Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 21

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Tacuarembó		Atenas de San Carlos

	1	X	2
	3.20	3.00	2.05
	3.35	2.95	2.05
	3.59	3.1	2.13
	3.57	3.17	2.11	Watch
	3.5	2.95	2.02
	3.48	3.4	2.14
	3.35	3	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.43 ↑ (3)	3.08 ↑ (3)	2.08 ↓ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tacuarembó
26.6%

Draw
29.6%

Atenas de San Carlos
43.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.7%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

41.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tacuarembó has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Atenas de San Carlos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tacuarembó than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atenas de San Carlos than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Tacuarembó - Atenas de San Carlos Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 11th and 1st in the Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Apertura: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tacuarembó won 0.

Recent results have been tough for Tacuarembó (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Atenas is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Tacuarembó could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Atenas holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 16 head-to-head meetings, Tacuarembó has recorded 5 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 15:16 (averaging 0.9:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Tacuarembó against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with 10:4 goals (averaging 1.4:0.6 per game).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Atenas	21	12	4	5	30:18	12	40
13	Tacuarembo	21	6	6	9	16:23	-7	24

Last Results with these Odds

Tacuarembó - the odds 3 are the expected chance of winning is 29.73%, but this team recently wins 6% of matches with these odds.

Atenas de San Carlos - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 40.54%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tacuarembó FC
Uruguayan Segunda Division
28.09.26	Paysandú - Tacuarembó	2:2 ✺
20.09.26	Tacuarembó - Huracán Paso de la Arena	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Uruguay Montevideo - Tacuarembó	2:2 ✺
06.09.26	Tacuarembó - Oriental de La Paz	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Colón Montevideo - Tacuarembó	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TTTLL
- Atenas de San Carlos
Uruguayan Segunda Division
27.09.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Plaza Colonia	0:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
24.09.26	Montevideo City Torque - Atenas de San Carlos	3:3 ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
19.09.26	La Luz - Atenas de San Carlos	0:1 ✺
13.09.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Cerrito	0:0 ✺
06.09.26	Atenas de San Carlos - River Plate Montevideo	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
27.06.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Tacuarembó	2:0
17.04.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Tacuarembó	1:0
15.11.25	Atenas de San Carlos - Tacuarembó	2:2
08.11.25	Tacuarembó - Atenas de San Carlos	1:1
27.09.25	Atenas de San Carlos - Tacuarembó	1:0
05.07.25	Tacuarembó - Atenas de San Carlos	1:0
04.05.25	Tacuarembó - Atenas de San Carlos	1:0

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