Match Info

Copa del Rey - 1/32-finals

Date: 3 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio El Prado (Talavera de la Reina)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Talavera de la Reina		Málaga

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.5	1.91	Watch
	3.55	3.45	1.98
	3.66	3.39	2.02
	3.57	3.5	1.98	Watch
	3.7	3.25	2	Watch
	3.89	3.49	1.9	Watch
	3.5	3.25	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.66 ↓ (4.22)	3.4 ↑ (3.31)	1.98 ↑ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Talavera de la Reina
25.5%

Draw
27.4%

Málaga
47.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.7%

27.7%

50.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.8%

25.3%

46%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Talavera de la Reina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Málaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Talavera de la Reina than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	16.7%	75%

Talavera de la Reina - Málaga Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Talavera will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Málaga will win (votes: 9 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Málaga: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Málaga (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gonzalez J. (G) 11. Gallardo Rodriguez E. (C) 4. Lopez A. 5. Molina S. 2. Cuenca D. 21. Montero Sergio 6. Pitu 18. Capo P. 15. Arroyo N. 19. Gomez V. 7. Di Renzo G.	13. Lopez C. (G) 2. Gabilondo J. 16. Murillo D. (C) 20. Montero J. 18. Sanchez D. 7. Abaida H. 26. Arriaza P. 37. Rodriguez R. 24. Lobete J. 9. Chupe 35. Ochoa A.
Substitutes
23. Farrando M. 14. Molina A. 9. Moreno M. 13. Rocafort R. (G) 3. Roig A. 8. Sanchez L.	19. Badiola I. 4. Galilea E. 14. Garcia V. 1. Herrero A. (G) 17. Jauregi E. 10. Larrubia D. 21. Nino A. 3. Puga C. 31. Rafita 36. Recio A.
Coaches
Nogales D.	Funes J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Di Renzo G. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Abaida H. ↓, Jauregi E. ↑,
46', Ochoa A. ↓, Rafita ↑,
56', 1 - 0, Montero Sergio ⚽,
65', 2 - 0, Montero Sergio ⚽,
66', Gomez V. ↓, Molina A. ↑,
67', Cuenca D. ↓, Roig A. ↑,
67', Chupe ↓, Larrubia D. ↑,
70', Rodriguez R. ↓, Badiola I. ↑,
76', Gallardo Rodriguez E. ↓, Farrando M. ↑,
76', Montero Sergio ↓, Sanchez L. ↑,
80', Pitu ↓, Moreno M. ↑,
85', Lobete J. ↓, Nino A. ↑,
88', 2 - 1, Nino A. ⚽,

Preview

Talavera has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Málaga has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Málaga may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Málaga is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Talavera de la Reina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
30.11.25	Talavera de la Reina - Cacereño	0:1 ✺
23.11.25	Zamora - Talavera de la Reina	2:1 ✺
16.11.25	Talavera de la Reina - Unionistas de Salamanca	0:1 ✺
08.11.25	Celta de Vigo B - Talavera de la Reina	4:3 ✺
02.11.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Talavera de la Reina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Málaga CF
Spanish LaLiga2
29.11.25	Valladolid - Málaga	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	Málaga - Mirandés	3:2 ✺
17.11.25	Leonesa - Málaga	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Málaga - Córdoba	2:2 ✺
02.11.25	Castellón - Málaga	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TWLTL

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