Match Info

Esiliiga B - Round 31

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday


	Tallinna Kalev U21		Pärnu Vaprus U21

	1	X	2
	2.35	4.33	2.15
	2.28	4.10	2.30
	1.89	4.66	2.97
	1.76	4.60	2.90
	1.62	5.40	3.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.71)	4.62 ↑ (4.35)	2.78 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tallinna Kalev U21
46.7%

Draw
20%

Pärnu Vaprus U21
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.3%

20.6%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

21.1%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tallinna Kalev U21 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tallinna Kalev U21's form might have worsened.

Pärnu Vaprus U21 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pärnu Vaprus U21's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tallinna Kalev U21 than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tallinna Kalev U21, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pärnu Vaprus U21 than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pärnu Vaprus U21, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Pormeister K. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', 1 - 0, Jaritsa E. ⚽,
76', (Penalty Awarded),
89', 1 - 1, Dolgov E. ⚽,

Preview

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Pärnu Vaprus U21 could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Pärnu Vaprus U21 has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Kalev U21 has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:12 (averaging 1.3:4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Kalev U21 against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 2:3 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	31	14	5	12	96:63	33	47
9	Tallinna Kalev U21	32	8	6	18	64:79	-15	30

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tallinna Kalev U21
Estonian Esiliiga B
03.10.26	Viljandi Tulevik - Tallinna Kalev U21	1:3 ✺
19.09.26	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Narva Trans U21	1:2 ✺
14.09.26	Jõhvi Phoenix - Tallinna Kalev U21	4:3 ✺
11.09.26	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Tabasalu	4:1 ✺
06.09.26	Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Tallinna Kalev U21	7:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLLWL
- Pärnu JK Vaprus U21
Estonian Esiliiga B
18.09.26	Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Tallinna JK Legion	12:0 ✺
13.09.26	Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Tartu Kalev	0:4 ✺
10.09.26	Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Jõhvi Phoenix	2:3 ✺
06.09.26	Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Tallinna Kalev U21	7:0 ✺
30.08.26	Tallinna JK Legion - Pärnu Vaprus U21	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga B
06.09.26	Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Tallinna Kalev U21	7:0
19.06.26	Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Tallinna Kalev U21	2:2
28.04.26	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Pärnu Vaprus U21	2:3

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