Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Akron (Zapopan)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports
Usa	Aym Sports


	Tapatío		Alebrijes de Oaxaca

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.43	4.2	5.75
	1.45	4.55	5.7
	1.47	5.01	5.85
	1.72	4.14	4.03	Watch
	1.49	4.7	5.45	Watch
	1.42	4.5	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.56)	4.52 ↑ (4.2)	5.43 ↑ (4.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tapatío
62.2%

Draw
20.6%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
17.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.2%

22%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.7%

20%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tapatío has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Alebrijes de Oaxaca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tapatío than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tapatío that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alebrijes de Oaxaca than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Tapatío - Alebrijes de Oaxaca Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Tapatío will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Tapatío will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Garcia E. (G) 48. Jimenez L. 198. Latorre D. 60. Ledesma L. 33. Martinez R. 50. Mendez F. 49. Moragrega V. 59. Torres C. 69. Villaseca D. 72. Villegas A. 44. Zamora S. (C)	35. Gonzalez Arriaga O. A. (G) 4. Alvarez K. (C) 6. Arellano A. 10. Carballo E. 1. Cruz J. 3. Justo A. 15. Lopez E. 11. Mascorro H. 29. Meza S. 8. Morales F. 5. Vazquez Garza H. A.
Substitutes
67. Aguayo S. 74. Anaya M. 70. Castro A. 46. Egurrola L. 54. Freyfeld E. 71. Montiel Herrera E. A. (G) 203. Nuno R. 47. Ortiz G. 62. Tellez B. 58. Uribe J.	25. Andrey Marcos 177. Bustos J. 175. Gallinar S. 31. Hernandez Lopez A. A. 7. Lopez D. 20. Mendoza Cendejas E. J. 17. Nunez D. 171. Ramirez L. A. (G) 24. Rojas D. 2. Santos E.
Coaches
Ortega A.	Alvarado A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Villegas A. 🟨,
26', Villegas A. 🟨,
45+3', Lopez E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Torres C. ↓, Anaya M. ↑,
46', Villaseca D. ↓, Tellez B. ↑,
52', Vazquez Garza H. A. 🟨,
54', 0 - 1, Meza S. ⚽, Cruz J. (A),
71', Latorre D. ↓, Egurrola L. ↑,
71', Ledesma L. ↓, Ortiz G. ↑,
74', Cruz J. ↓, Bustos J. ↑,
74', Carballo E. ↓, Andrey Marcos ↑,
79', Arellano A. 🟨,
79', Jimenez L. 🟨,
83', Justo A. ↓, Santos E. ↑,
87', Moragrega V. ↓, Aguayo S. ↑,
87', Mascorro H. ↓, Lopez D. ↑,
90+6', Alvarez K. 🟨,
90+7', Aguayo S. 🟨,
90+9', Mendez F. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tapatío won 2.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

In this match, Tapatío is seen as the favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Tapatío won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:12. (average 1.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Tapatío won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:4. (average 2.2:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tapatío
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
27.09.25	Cancún - Tapatío	1:0 ✺
19.09.25	Tapatío - Correcaminos UAT	2:2 ✺
13.09.25	Tlaxcala - Tapatío	1:0 ✺
06.09.25	Jaiba Brava - Tapatío	2:1 ✺
29.08.25	Tapatío - Atlante	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LTLLW
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
28.09.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Irapuato	0:2 ✺
20.09.25	Dorados - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Atlante	0:3 ✺
06.09.25	Tlaxcala - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Venados	4:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
31.01.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tapatío	1:3
16.08.24	Tapatío - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	6:0
07.03.24	Tapatío - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1:2
31.07.23	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tapatío	1:1
02.03.23	Tapatío - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1:1
03.08.22	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tapatío	4:0
22.03.22	Tapatío - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	0:1

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