Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 19 September 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Akron (Zapopan)


	Tapatío		Correcaminos UAT

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.75	3.9	3.75
	1.82	4.25	3.65
	1.62	4.10	4.81	Watch
	1.75	3.92	3.93	Watch
	1.64	3.75	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.69)	3.98 ↓ (4.05)	4.18 ↑ (4.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tapatío
54.3%

Draw
23.4%

Correcaminos UAT
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.7%

22.8%

22.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.5%

22.5%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tapatío has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Correcaminos UAT has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tapatío than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Correcaminos UAT than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Tapatío - Correcaminos UAT Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tapatío (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Garcia E. (G) 67. Aguayo S. 42. Delgadillo D. (C) 66. Guzman Rodriguez J. L. 48. Jimenez L. 198. Latorre D. 60. Ledesma L. 33. Martinez R. 69. Villaseca D. 72. Villegas A. 44. Zamora S.	1. Castellanos R. (G) 104. Arce R. 7. Cisneros D. (C) 11. Espinosa Y. 20. Estopier J. 28. Lopez M. 6. Martinez J. 13. Moreno G. 3. Pereyra J. 85. Rubli G. 30. Villareal A.
Substitutes
74. Anaya M. 70. Castro A. 46. Egurrola L. 54. Freyfeld E. 225. Inda C. 203. Nuno R. 190. Romero A. (G) 62. Tellez B. 59. Torres C.	88. Aguilar A. 5. Capeluto J. 35. Chavez L. (G) 8. Garcia J. 17. Garcia J. 10. Hernandez E. 27. Martinez J. 91. Sarmiento M. 19. Trevino S. 34. Velazquez H.
Coaches
Ortega A.	Eugui H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Latorre D. ⚽, Guzman Rodriguez J. L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Rubli G. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
47', Lopez M. 🟨,
60', Jimenez L. 🟨,
64', Jimenez L. ↓, Nuno R. ↑,
64', Ledesma L. ↓, Inda C. ↑,
64', Arce R. ↓, Velazquez H. ↑,
64', Estopier J. ↓, Hernandez E. ↑,
70', Latorre D. ↓, Castro A. ↑,
70', Guzman Rodriguez J. L. ↓, Egurrola L. ↑,
74', Moreno G. 🟨,
74', Espinosa Y. ↓, Trevino S. ↑,
74', Villareal A. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
80', Martinez R. ↓, Freyfeld E. ↑,
85', Martinez J. 🟨,
88', 2 - 0, Aguayo S. (Pen),
90+6', 2 - 1, Hernandez E. (Pen),
90+12', 2 - 2, Hernandez E. ⚽,
90+14', (Pen),

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tapatío won 3.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

In this match, Tapatío is considered a favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Tapatío won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 23:8. (average 2.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Tapatío won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:3. (average 2.2:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tapatío
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
13.09.25	Tlaxcala - Tapatío	1:0 ✺
06.09.25	Jaiba Brava - Tapatío	2:1 ✺
29.08.25	Tapatío - Atlante	3:0 ✺
22.08.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Tapatío	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Tapatío - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LLWTL
- Correcaminos UAT
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
12.09.25	Correcaminos UAT - Jaiba Brava	1:2 ✺
06.09.25	Atlante - Correcaminos UAT	5:1 ✺
29.08.25	Correcaminos UAT - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:4 ✺
24.08.25	Tlaxcala - Correcaminos UAT	0:2 ✺
15.08.25	Correcaminos UAT - Leones Negros UdeG	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
11.04.25	Tapatío - Correcaminos UAT	4:0
24.10.24	Correcaminos UAT - Tapatío	0:3
20.03.24	Tapatío - Correcaminos UAT	2:2
16.08.23	Correcaminos UAT - Tapatío	2:2
20.01.23	Correcaminos UAT - Tapatío	1:2
20.09.22	Tapatío - Correcaminos UAT	2:0
10.03.22	Tapatío - Correcaminos UAT	1:0

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