Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 14

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Akron (Zapopan)

Referee: Rodriguez A. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Brazil	Disney+
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Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Tapatío		Irapuato

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.42	3.5	2.52	Watch
	2.57	3.63	2.6
	2.24	3.65	2.92	Watch
	2.3	3.4	2.63
	2.49	3.78	2.49	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↑ (2.19)	3.59 ↓ (3.88)	2.63 ↓ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tapatío
38.7%

Draw
25.9%

Irapuato
35.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

24.1%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

24.4%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tapatío has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Irapuato has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tapatío than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Irapuato than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

Tapatío - Irapuato Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Tapatío will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Irapuato will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
201. Liceaga J. (G) 56. Chavez A. 57. Hernandez J. 225. Inda S. 48. Jimenez L. 60. Ledesma L. 49. Moragrega V. 43. Parra R. 62. Tellez B. 69. Villaseca D. 44. Zamora S. (C)	20. Hernandez H. (C) 3. Alvarado V. 8. Cruz C. 6. del Angel E. 28. Gamboa J. 27. Martinez G. 31. Pena R. 10. Rangel J. 34. Ruiz J. 16. Sandoval R. 9. Vasquez Velasquez L. S.
Substitutes
63. Cendejas M. 46. Egurrola L. 55. Esparza S. 54. Freyfeld E. 66. Guzman Rodriguez J. L. 71. Montiel Herrera E. A. (G) 203. Nuno R. 47. Ortiz G. 53. Soldati C. 58. Uribe J.	5. Elbis 33. Gonzalez R. 29. Gutierrez L. 1. Magana G. (G) 37. Martinez S. 11. Partida E. 14. Rubio R. 36. Salazar J. 25. Sanchez B. 19. Santana C.
Coaches
Melendez J.	Alcantar D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Gamboa J. ⚽, Hernandez H. (A),
39', Martinez G. 🟨,
41', Alvarado V. 🟨,
44', Pena R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Parra R. ↓, Egurrola L. ↑,
46', Villaseca D. ↓, Uribe J. ↑,
56', 0 - 2, Rangel J. ⚽, Pena R. (A),
57', 1 - 2, Hernandez J. ⚽,
68', Inda S. ↓, Cendejas M. ↑,
68', Rangel J. ↓, Gonzalez R. ↑,
75', Vasquez Velasquez L. S. ↓, Salazar J. ↑,
75', Cruz C. ↓, Santana C. ↑,
77', Zamora S. ↓, Guzman Rodriguez J. L. ↑,
83', del Angel E. 🟨,
84', Alvarado V. ↓, Elbis ↑,
84', Gamboa J. ↓, Martinez S. ↑,
86', Tellez B. 🟨,
87', Jimenez L. ↓, Ortiz G. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 10).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Tapatío may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tapatío won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Tapatio	10	4	2	4	17:15	2	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tapatío
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
07.04.26	Tapatío - Tlaxcala	3:0 ✺
29.03.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Tapatío	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Tapatío - Atlético Morelia	2:1 ✺
13.03.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tapatío	4:3 ✺
06.03.26	Tapatío - Cancún	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLWLL
- Irapuato
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
03.04.26	Irapuato - Atlético La Paz	3:1 ✺
28.03.26	Atlético Morelia - Irapuato	2:0 ✺
21.03.26	Irapuato - Cancún	2:2 ✺
13.03.26	Correcaminos UAT - Irapuato	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	Irapuato - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
31.10.25	Irapuato - Tapatío	2:1

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