Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Akron (Zapopan)

Referee: Martinez E. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Tapatío		Cancún

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.88	3.45	3.65
	1.9	3.68	4.15
	1.85	3.78	3.85	Watch
	1.85	3.5	3.75
	1.92	3.58	3.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (2.03)	3.6 ↑ (3.48)	3.81 ↑ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tapatío
49.6%

Draw
25.9%

Cancún
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

26.8%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

26.8%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tapatío has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Cancún has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tapatío than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cancún than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Tapatío - Cancún Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
201. Liceaga J. (G) 56. Chavez A. 66. Guzman Rodriguez J. L. 225. Inda S. 48. Jimenez L. 60. Ledesma L. 50. Medina C. 49. Moragrega V. 43. Parra R. 62. Tellez B. 44. Zamora S.	1. Andrade C. (G) 5. Chavez A. 7. El-mesmari B. 3. Hernandez J. 8. Melendre F. 6. Ochoa I. 4. Reyes R. 12. Rodriguez J. 11. Trejo C. 10. Uscanga P. (C) 30. Zabala L.
Substitutes
63. Cendejas M. 46. Egurrola L. 55. Esparza S. 54. Freyfeld E. 192. Hernandez C. 57. Hernandez J. 71. Montiel Herrera E. A. (G) 203. Nuno R. 58. Uribe J. 69. Villaseca D.	26. Arce E. (G) 21. Barraza L. 14. Campos K. 15. Guillen D. 32. Lopez L. 18. Montiel S. 17. Padilla E. 19. Preciado G. 22. Soria E.
Coaches
Melendez J.	Bravo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Ochoa I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', 0 - 1, Melendre F. ⚽, Trejo C. (A),
54', Ledesma L. ↓, Villaseca D. ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Chavez A. ⚽,
68', Parra R. ↓, Hernandez C. ↑,
68', Medina C. ↓, Uribe J. ↑,
74', Melendre F. ↓, Preciado G. ↑,
78', Rodriguez J. ↓, Lopez L. ↑,
78', Uscanga P. ↓, Campos K. ↑,
82', Jimenez L. ↓, Egurrola L. ↑,
82', Moragrega V. ↓, Hernandez J. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tapatío won 2.

Recent performances by Tapatío have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cancún is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Tapatío will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Tapatío won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 0.7:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Tapatío won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 0.8:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Cancun	11	5	2	4	19:15	4	17
10	Tapatio	11	4	2	5	19:19	0	14

Last Results with these Odds

Cancún - the odds 3.43 are the expected chance of winning is 27.21%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tapatío
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
17.04.26	Dorados - Tapatío	3:1 ✺
11.04.26	Tapatío - Irapuato	1:2 ✺
07.04.26	Tapatío - Tlaxcala	3:0 ✺
29.03.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Tapatío	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Tapatío - Atlético Morelia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LLWLW
- Cancún FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
19.04.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Cancún	1:2 ✺
11.04.26	Cancún - Atlante	2:1 ✺
03.04.26	Correcaminos UAT - Cancún	1:3 ✺
28.03.26	Cancún - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:2 ✺
21.03.26	Irapuato - Cancún	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.9 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
06.03.26	Tapatío - Cancún	1:2
27.09.25	Cancún - Tapatío	1:0
05.04.25	Cancún - Tapatío	1:2
20.10.24	Tapatío - Cancún	2:0
26.03.24	Cancún - Tapatío	1:1
22.07.23	Tapatío - Cancún	0:0
29.03.23	Cancún - Tapatío	1:0

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