Match Info

SPAIN: LaLiga2 - Round 22

Date: 11 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez López (Santa Cruz de Tenerife)

Referee: Muniz C. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Tenerife		Castellón

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.3	2.25	Watch
	2.95	3.1	2.3
	3.1	3.2	2.3	Watch
	3.19	3.29	2.31	Watch
	2.62	3.2	2.62
	3.17	3.24	2.34	Watch
	3.1	3.2	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↑ (2.43)	3.22 ↓ (3.25)	2.35 ↓ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tenerife
30.8%

Draw
29.2%

Castellón
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

28.8%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

28.4%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tenerife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tenerife's form might have worsened.

Castellón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Castellón's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tenerife than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tenerife, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castellón than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Castellón, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	0%	57.1%

Tenerife - Castellón Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Tenerife will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Castellón will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Castellón: 31.2% – 83%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Badia E. (G) 22. Mellot J. 5. Gonzalez S. 4. Leon J. 2. Rodriguez D. 17. Rubio W. 15. Bodiger Y. 16. Sanz A. (C) 19. Cantero A. 8. Diarra Y. 18. Enric	1. Crettaz G. (G) 17. Ruiz S. 5. Jimenez A. 15. Willems J. 22. Chirino D. 7. Moyita S. 6. van den Belt T. 10. Sanchez R. 24. Camara O. 4. Suero I. 8. Mamah K.
Substitutes
12. Alves R. 1. Carrasco S. (G) 24. Gaya J. 6. Gonzalez F. 33. Martin Luis A. 3. Medrano F. 20. Mesa M. 10. Moreno M. 13. Nadal T. (G) 9. Rodriguez A.	13. Abedzadeh A. (G) 11. Aurelio D. 23. Calavera J. 16. Cipenga B. 9. de Miguel J. 18. Lottin A. 20. Markanich N. 51. Pastor G. 30. Schwake B. (G) 3. Traore M. 33. Vertrouwd J. 19. Villahermosa D.
Coaches
Cervera A.	Schreuder D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, Cantero A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Chirino D. 🟨,
59', Moyita S. ↓, Aurelio D. ↑,
59', Camara O. ↓, de Miguel J. ↑,
59', Willems J. ↓, Traore M. ↑,
59', Sanchez R. ↓, Pastor G. ↑,
60', 2 - 0, Enric ⚽, Mellot J. (A),
70', Cantero A. ↓, Mesa M. ↑,
71', Gonzalez S. 🟨,
75', Rubio W. ↓, Moreno M. ↑,
84', Ruiz S. 🟨,
86', Enric ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
86', Sanz A. ↓, Martin Luis A. ↑,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation and 12).

Tenerife has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Castellón is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Castellón could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Tenerife: Jose Amo (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Castellón: Gil O. (Jaw injury)

There are questionable in Castellón: Calatrava A. (Lacking Match Fitness) Sanchez R. (Knock) Traore M. (Knock) de Miguel J. (Muscle Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Tenerife won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:3 (average 1.3:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Tenerife won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tenerife
Spanish LaLiga2
07.01.25	Tenerife - Levante	0:3 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
04.01.25	Tenerife - Osasuna	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
22.12.24	Burgos - Tenerife	1:0 ✺
19.12.24	Huesca - Tenerife	1:0 ✺
08.12.24	Córdoba - Tenerife	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- CD Castellón
Spanish LaLiga2
22.12.24	Castellón - Elche	0:2 ✺
19.12.24	Deportivo A Coruña - Castellón	5:1 ✺
14.12.24	Castellón - Cartagena	4:1 ✺
08.12.24	Albacete Balompié - Castellón	0:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
05.12.24	Ponferradina - Castellón	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
29.09.24	Castellón - Tenerife	2:1
25.04.21	Tenerife - Castellón	1:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
06.01.21	Castellón - Tenerife	0:2
Spanish LaLiga2
03.01.21	Castellón - Tenerife	0:1

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