The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Tepatitlán de Morelos 16.2%
Draw 19.6%
Atlético Morelia 64.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
23.3%
21.7%
55%
Our Initial ML Estimation
22.8%
21.2%
56.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tepatitlán de Morelos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tepatitlán de Morelos's form might have worsened.
Atlético Morelia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético Morelia's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tepatitlán de Morelos than the current prediction. (+6.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tepatitlán de Morelos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (-8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético Morelia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
0%
100%
Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético Morelia Predictions
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Atlético Morelia will win (votes: 4 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
30. Gatica A. (G) 6. Baez G. (C) 36. Sanchez J. 38. Cardenas A. 24. Valencia V. 40. Tamay A. 5. Villalpando D. 25. Moreno A. 37. Egurrola L. 39. Cruz J. 23. Godinez J.
22. Pasquel Colin R. (G) 2. Lopez Aburto R. 6. De Buen D. 4. Zamora D. 3. Hernandez S. 8. Martinez J. (C) 26. Martinez J. 19. Rodriguez M. 11. Lopez V. 17. Nambo M. 9. del Campo R.
Substitutes
16. Aguilar H. 33. Alcantar E. 32. Arevalo T. 31. Casas B. 3. Contreras I. 13. Martinez N. 44. Modica F. 9. Paez L. 35. Rodriguez D. (G) 8. Vazquez L.
13. Andrade A. 15. Botello O. 21. Castellanos E. 14. Castellanos R. 28. Flores A. 1. Galan R. (G) 32. Izarra A. 18. Martinez G. 7. Romero P. 5. Van Rankin J.
Coaches
Olvera G.
Colace H.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
5', Nambo M. 🟨,
6', del Campo R. ↓, Flores A. ↑,
20', Martinez J. ↓, Andrade A. ↑,
24', Hernandez S. 🟨,
36', 1 - 0, Cruz J. (Penalty Awarded),
39', Sanchez J. 🟨,
45+1', Baez G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Hernandez S. ↓, Van Rankin J. ↑,
46', Lopez V. ↓, Romero P. ↑,
49', Baez G. 🟨,
55', Godinez J. ↓, Martinez N. ↑,
63', 1 - 1, Flores A. ⚽, Andrade A. (A),
67', Cruz J. ↓, Casas B. ↑,
76', Rodriguez M. ↓, Izarra A. ↑,
79', Egurrola L. ↓, Arevalo T. ↑,
79', Valencia V. ↓, Contreras I. ↑,
82', Zamora D. 🟥,
90+3', Andrade A. 🟨,
Preview
A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 16th and 2nd in the Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tepatitlán won 3.
Tepatitlán is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Atlético Morelia is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Atlético Morelia may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
Bookmakers give the edge to Atlético Morelia for this game.
In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Tepatitlán has recorded 6 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:18 (averaging 1.8:1.4 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Tepatitlán against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 13:5 goals (averaging 2.2:0.8 per game).
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Gatica A. (G) 
del Campo R. 
Arevalo T. 
Modica F. 
Paez L. 
Castellanos R. 
Galan R. (G) 
Izarra A. 
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