Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 9

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza (Nieciecza)

Referee: Kwiatkowski T. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Termalica Nieciecza		Lech Poznań

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.8	1.95	Watch
	3.25	3.6	2
	3.41	4.01	2
	40.00	15.82	1.00	Watch
	3.6	3.8	1.95	Watch
	3.4	3.5	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.54 ↑ (3.31)	5.76 ↑ (3.65)	1.81 ↓ (2.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Termalica Nieciecza
12.6%

Draw
20.9%

Lech Poznań
66.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

25.5%

46.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.6%

24.1%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Termalica Nieciecza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Termalica Nieciecza's form might have worsened.

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lech Poznań's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Termalica Nieciecza than the current prediction. (+14%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Termalica Nieciecza, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-17.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lech Poznań, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Termalica Nieciecza - Lech Poznań Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lech (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Lech (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Termalica (2.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lech Poznań will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Termalica (votes: 1 - 25%). Lech (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Mleczko M. (G) 29. Isik G. 2. Kopacz B. 5. Masoero L. 21. Hilbrycht D. 28. Ambrosiewicz M. 23. Mini 6. Wolski M. 86. Strzalek I. 25. Zapolnik K. (C) 9. Jimenez J.	41. Mrozek B. (G) 2. Pereira J. 3. Douglas A. 16. Milic A. 15. Gurgul M. 24. Jagiello F. 6. Ouma T. 88. Ismaheel T. 77. Palma L. 56. Lisman K. 9. Ishak M. (C)
Substitutes
1. Chovan A. (G) 35. Deisadze D. 7. Fassbender M. 26. Jakubik W. 3. Kasperkiewicz A. 13. Kubica K. 8. Kurzawa R. 77. Putivtsev A. 53. Trubeha A.	7. Agnero Y. 31. Bakowski K. (G) 14. Bengtsson L. 19. Fiabema B. 20. Gumny R. 43. Kozubal A. 27. Monka W. 4. Moutinho J. 99. Rodriguez P. 72. Skrzypczak M. 23. Thordarson G.
Coaches
Brosz M.	Frederiksen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45', 0 - 1, Ishak M. ⚽, Milic A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', 0 - 2, Ishak M. ⚽, Palma L. (A),
52', Jimenez J. ↓, Fassbender M. ↑,
52', Strzalek I. ↓, Kurzawa R. ↑,
61', Ismaheel T. ↓, Bengtsson L. ↑,
63', Hilbrycht D. ↓, Trubeha A. ↑,
63', Mini ↓, Kasperkiewicz A. ↑,
74', Ishak M. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
74', Lisman K. ↓, Fiabema B. ↑,
74', Palma L. ↓, Thordarson G. ↑,
80', Pereira J. ↓, Gumny R. ↑,
83', Fiabema B. 🟨,
86', Kopacz B. 🟨,
87', Zapolnik K. ↓, Jakubik W. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Lech may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Lech has had a series of home games.

Lech will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 8:26. (average 0.9:2.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Termalica won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Termalica Nieciecza
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.09.25	Motor Lublin - Termalica Nieciecza	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Korona Kielce	1:3 ✺
22.08.25	Radomiak Radom - Termalica Nieciecza	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Raków Częstochowa	2:3 ✺
08.08.25	Górnik Zabrze - Termalica Nieciecza	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TLTLW
- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
12.09.25	Lech Poznań - Zagłębie Lubin	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	Lech Poznań - Widzew Łódź	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
28.08.25	Genk - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
21.08.25	Lech Poznań - Genk	1:5 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
16.08.25	Lech Poznań - Korona Kielce	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
12.02.22	Lech Poznań - Termalica Nieciecza	5:0
13.08.21	Termalica Nieciecza - Lech Poznań	1:3
17.12.17	Lech Poznań - Termalica Nieciecza	3:1
20.08.17	Termalica Nieciecza - Lech Poznań	1:3
07.05.17	Termalica Nieciecza - Lech Poznań	0:3
10.02.17	Lech Poznań - Termalica Nieciecza	3:0
19.08.16	Termalica Nieciecza - Lech Poznań	0:0

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