Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 32

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza (Nieciecza)

Referee: Arys K. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Premium, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV, sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz


	Termalica Nieciecza		Legia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.75	1.67	Watch
	4.4	3.8	1.71
	4.45	3.9	1.65
	4.79	4.16	1.69
	4.75	4.1	1.69	Watch
	4.5	3.8	1.67
	4.66	3.92	1.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.55 ↑ (4.22)	3.92 ↑ (3.85)	1.68 ↓ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Termalica Nieciecza
20.5%

Draw
23.8%

Legia Warsaw
55.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.5%

24.7%

52.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.1%

24.3%

53.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Termalica Nieciecza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Termalica Nieciecza than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Termalica Nieciecza - Legia Warsaw Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Legia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Legia Warsaw will win (19 of 19 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Chovan A. (G) 32. Matysik M. 3. Kasperkiewicz A. 77. Putivtsev A. (C) 29. Isik G. 8. Kurzawa R. 23. Guerrero S. 28. Ambrosiewicz M. 21. Hilbrycht D. 25. Zapolnik K. 19. Durdov I.	89. Hindrich O. (G) 91. Piatkowski K. 8. Augustyniak R. 12. Pankov R. 11. Chodyna K. 67. Kapustka B. (C) 22. Elitim J. 44. Szymanski D. 23. Kun P. 18. Nsame J. 9. Adamski R.
Substitutes
27. Boboc R. 7. Fassbender M. 26. Jakubik W. 24. Janicki M. (G) 9. Jimenez J. 5. Masoero L. 99. Mleczko M. (G) 35. Surowiec K. 16. Surowiec P. 53. Trubeha A. 6. Wolski M.	6. Arreiol H. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 99. Kovacik S. 77. Krasniqi E. 56. Leszczynski J. 29. Rajovic M. 1. Tobiasz K. (G) 82. Urbanski K. 53. Urbanski W. 19. Vinagre R. 20. Zewlakow J.
Coaches
Brosz M.	Papszun M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Adamski R. ⚽, Piatkowski K. (A),
42', Isik G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Matysik M. ↓, Boboc R. ↑,
46', Durdov I. ↓, Jimenez J. ↑,
53', Szymanski D. 🟨,
61', Nsame J. ↓, Rajovic M. ↑,
62', Kurzawa R. 🟨,
71', Adamski R. ↓, Krasniqi E. ↑,
75', Ambrosiewicz M. ↓, Trubeha A. ↑,
78', Rajovic M. ↓, Urbanski W. ↑,
78', Szymanski D. ↓, Jedrzejczyk A. ↑,
86', Putivtsev A. ↓, Jakubik W. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 11).

Termalica is Relegated to Division 1

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 1.

Termalica has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Legia is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Legia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Legia is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Termalica: Kopacz B. (Injury)

There will not play in Legia: Bichakhchyan V. (Broken thighbone) Stojanovic P. (Inactive) Wszolek P. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Legia: Reca A. (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:20. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Termalica won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:4. (average 1.6:0.8).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Legia: 13.85%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Legia	9	5	4	0	19:8	11	19

Last Results with these Odds

Legia Warsaw - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 52.8%, but this team recently wins 47% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Termalica Nieciecza
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.05.26	GKS Katowice - Termalica Nieciecza	5:1 ✺
24.04.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Termalica Nieciecza	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Termalica Nieciecza - Wisła Płock	1:3 ✺
11.04.26	Widzew Łódź - Termalica Nieciecza	1:0 ✺
06.04.26	Termalica Nieciecza - Piast Gliwice	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LWLLW
- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.05.26	Legia Warsaw - Widzew Łódź	1:0 ✺
26.04.26	Lech Poznań - Legia Warsaw	4:0 ✺
17.04.26	Legia Warsaw - Zagłębie Lubin	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Legia Warsaw - Górnik Zabrze	1:1 ✺
06.04.26	Pogoń Szczecin - Legia Warsaw	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
09.11.25	Legia Warsaw - Termalica Nieciecza	1:2
Polish Cup
30.08.22	Termalica Nieciecza - Legia Warsaw	2:3 ET
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.03.22	Legia Warsaw - Termalica Nieciecza	4:1
19.02.22	Termalica Nieciecza - Legia Warsaw	0:0
09.12.17	Legia Warsaw - Termalica Nieciecza	3:0
05.08.17	Termalica Nieciecza - Legia Warsaw	1:0
14.05.17	Legia Warsaw - Termalica Nieciecza	6:0

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