Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 27

Date: 6 April 2026, Monday

Location: Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza (Nieciecza)

Referee: Kos D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 3
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 360, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Termalica Nieciecza		Piast Gliwice

	1	X	2
	3	3.5	2.15	Watch
	3.1	3.5	2.15
	2.92	3.4	2.25
	3.05	3.57	2.32
	3.02	3.6	2.28	Watch
	2.9	3.25	2.25
	2.97	3.36	2.28	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.99 ↑ (2.45)	3.45 ↑ (3.37)	2.24 ↓ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Termalica Nieciecza
31.2%

Draw
27.1%

Piast Gliwice
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

27.3%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

27.1%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Termalica Nieciecza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Termalica Nieciecza's form might have worsened.

Piast Gliwice has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Piast Gliwice's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Termalica Nieciecza than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Termalica Nieciecza, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Piast Gliwice than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Piast Gliwice, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.5%	5.9%	70.6%

Termalica Nieciecza - Piast Gliwice Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Termalica will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). Piast will win (votes: 12 - 70.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Piast: 48.9% – 92.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Chovan A. (G) 32. Matysik M. 5. Masoero L. 3. Kasperkiewicz A. 27. Boboc R. 23. Guerrero S. 28. Ambrosiewicz M. 21. Hilbrycht D. 86. Strzalek I. 25. Zapolnik K. (C) 9. Jimenez J.	33. Szymanski K. (G) 28. Borowski F. 5. Juande 29. Drapinski I. 36. Lewicki J. 31. Lesniak O. 20. Tomasiewicz G. 10. Dziczek P. (C) 80. Vallejo H. 63. Barkovskiy G. 7. Felix J.
Substitutes
17. Biniek D. 19. Durdov I. 29. Isik G. 26. Jakubik W. 99. Mleczko M. (G) 53. Trubeha A.	17. Boisgard Q. 6. Chrapek M. 4. Czerwinski J. 9. Dalmau A. 3. Fikaj E. 30. Holec D. (G) 70. Katsantonis A. 90. Lima I. 18. Maziarz O. 23. Mucha S. 11. Sanca L.
Coaches
Brosz M.	Mysliwiec D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
14', Lewicki J. 🟨,
15', 1 - 0, Jimenez J. (Penalty Awarded),
35', Ambrosiewicz M. 🟨,
42', 2 - 0, Zapolnik K. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Matysik M. ↓, Isik G. ↑,
46', Vallejo H. ↓, Sanca L. ↑,
61', Tomasiewicz G. ↓, Chrapek M. ↑,
61', Barkovskiy G. ↓, Dalmau A. ↑,
61', Felix J. ↓, Katsantonis A. ↑,
68', Strzalek I. ↓, Trubeha A. ↑,
68', Lesniak O. ↓, Lima I. ↑,
69', 2 - 1, Dalmau A. ⚽, Drapinski I. (A),
73', Hilbrycht D. 🟨,
73', 3 - 1, Hilbrycht D. ⚽,
78', Jimenez J. ↓, Biniek D. ↑,
79', Zapolnik K. ↓, Durdov I. ↑,
82', 3 - 2, Juande ⚽,
85', Biniek D. 🟨,
90+4', Lima I. 🟨,
90+5', Hilbrycht D. ↓, Jakubik W. ↑,
90+6', Lima I. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 0.

Termalica has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Piast has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Termalica: Kubica K. (Yellow Cards) Putivtsev A. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Piast: Lokilo J. (Yellow Cards) Plach F. (Knee Injury) Twumasi E. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Termalica: Kopacz B. (Inactive) Kurzawa R. (Inactive) Wolski M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Piast: Boisgard Q. (Inactive)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 11:22. (average 1:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Termalica won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1.2:1.6).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Piast Gliwice: 0.83%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Piast Gliwice	9	4	1	4	16:15	1	13

Last Results with these Odds

Piast Gliwice - the odds 2.62 are the expected chance of winning is 35.15%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Termalica Nieciecza
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.03.26	Lech Poznań - Termalica Nieciecza	4:1 ✺
13.03.26	Termalica Nieciecza - Motor Lublin	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Korona Kielce - Termalica Nieciecza	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Termalica Nieciecza - Radomiak Radom	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Raków Częstochowa - Termalica Nieciecza	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLTL
- Piast Gliwice
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.03.26	Piast Gliwice - Radomiak Radom	3:1 ✺
14.03.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Piast Gliwice	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Piast Gliwice - Zagłębie Lubin	1:3 ✺
27.02.26	Cracovia - Piast Gliwice	2:3 ✺
20.02.26	Piast Gliwice - Motor Lublin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
27.09.25	Piast Gliwice - Termalica Nieciecza	4:2
Polish Cup
31.10.23	Termalica Nieciecza - Piast Gliwice	0:1
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.05.22	Termalica Nieciecza - Piast Gliwice	0:1
26.11.21	Piast Gliwice - Termalica Nieciecza	2:1
19.05.18	Piast Gliwice - Termalica Nieciecza	4:0
07.04.18	Piast Gliwice - Termalica Nieciecza	1:1
05.11.17	Termalica Nieciecza - Piast Gliwice	2:1

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