Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 25

Date: 13 March 2026, Friday

Location: Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza (Nieciecza)

Referee: Piszczelok M. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol


	Termalica Nieciecza		Motor Lublin

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.6	2.45	Watch
	2.42	3.55	2.58
	2.55	3.86	2.58
	2.39	3.81	2.73	Watch
	2.25	3.6	2.7
	2.46	3.6	2.53	Watch
	2.51	3.1	2.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↓ (2.51)	3.59 ↑ (3.1)	2.58 ↑ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Termalica Nieciecza
38.2%

Draw
25.9%

Motor Lublin
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

28.8%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

29.7%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Termalica Nieciecza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Motor Lublin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Termalica Nieciecza than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Motor Lublin than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52.6%	36.8%	10.5%

Termalica Nieciecza - Motor Lublin Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Termalica will win (votes: 10 - 52.6%). Motor will win (votes: 2 - 10.5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 36.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Termalica: 30.1% – 75.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Motor (2.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Termalica Nieciecza will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Termalica (votes: 4 - 80%). Motor (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Chovan A. (G) 32. Matysik M. 3. Kasperkiewicz A. 77. Putivtsev A. (C) 27. Boboc R. 28. Ambrosiewicz M. 13. Kubica K. 21. Hilbrycht D. 53. Trubeha A. 19. Durdov I. 7. Fassbender M.	1. Brkic I. (G) 28. Stolarski P. 39. Bartos M. 3. Matthys H. 24. Luberecki F. 68. Wolski B. (C) 6. Samper S. 7. Rodrigues I. 30. Ndiaye M. 9. Czubak K. 11. Fabio Ronaldo
Substitutes
17. Biniek D. 23. Guerrero S. 29. Isik G. 26. Jakubik W. 9. Jimenez J. 5. Masoero L. 99. Mleczko M. (G) 86. Strzalek I. 25. Zapolnik K.	77. Dadashov R. 42. Ede B. 10. Karasek K. 26. Krol M. 99. Kukulski P. (G) 21. Labojko J. 16. Lewandowski F. 2. Meyer P. 29. Santos T. 33. Tratnik G. (G) 19. van Hoeven B. 17. Wojcik F.
Coaches
Brosz M.	Stolarski M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
17', 1 - 0, Kubica K. ⚽,
23', Ndiaye M. 🟨,
30', 1 - 1, Czubak K. (Penalty Awarded),
36', 1 - 2, Wolski B. ⚽, Ndiaye M. (A),
36', Kasperkiewicz A. 🟨,
39', Samper S. 🟨,
45+1', Stolarski P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Trubeha A. ↓, Strzalek I. ↑,
46', Samper S. ↓, Labojko J. ↑,
46', Stolarski P. ↓, Wojcik F. ↑,
59', Fassbender M. ↓, Zapolnik K. ↑,
65', Ndiaye M. ↓, Santos T. ↑,
65', Durdov I. ↓, Jimenez J. ↑,
67', Ambrosiewicz M. 🟨,
75', Czubak K. ↓, Dadashov R. ↑,
78', Boboc R. ↓, Jakubik W. ↑,
78', Hilbrycht D. ↓, Biniek D. ↑,
84', Fabio Ronaldo ↓, van Hoeven B. ↑,
90+3', van Hoeven B. 🟨,
90+5', Dadashov R. 🟨,
90+7', Matthys H. 🟨,
90+7', Ambrosiewicz M. 🟨,

Preview

Termalica is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Motor has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Motor: Plichta K. (Inactive) Scalet M. (Inactive)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.3:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Termalica won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Motor Lublin: 0.83%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Motor Lublin	9	1	3	5	9:15	-6	6

Last Results with these Odds

Motor Lublin - the odds 2.51 are the expected chance of winning is 35.59%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Termalica Nieciecza
Polish Ekstraklasa
07.03.26	Korona Kielce - Termalica Nieciecza	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Termalica Nieciecza - Radomiak Radom	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Raków Częstochowa - Termalica Nieciecza	1:0 ✺
16.02.26	Termalica Nieciecza - Górnik Zabrze	1:1 ✺
08.02.26	Pogoń Szczecin - Termalica Nieciecza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LTLTT
- Motor Lublin
Polish Ekstraklasa
08.03.26	Motor Lublin - Górnik Zabrze	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Motor Lublin - Korona Kielce	2:0 ✺
20.02.26	Piast Gliwice - Motor Lublin	1:2 ✺
15.02.26	Motor Lublin - Lechia Gdańsk	2:3 ✺
07.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Motor Lublin	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
14.09.25	Motor Lublin - Termalica Nieciecza	1:1
Polish Division 1
24.02.24	Motor Lublin - Termalica Nieciecza	1:0
13.08.23	Termalica Nieciecza - Motor Lublin	0:2

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