Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 38

Date: 19 May 2023, Friday

Location: Stadio Libero Liberati (Terni)

Referee: Perenzoni D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport, Sky Sport Football


	Ternana		Frosinone

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.3	2.7	Watch
	2.55	3.4	2.55
	2.6	3.3	2.65
	2.64	3.51	2.75
	3.5	3.4	2.05
	2.64	3.35	2.63	Watch
	2.55	3.35	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↓ (3.45)	3.37 ↓ (3.51)	2.57 ↑ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ternana
34.9%

Draw
28.2%

Frosinone
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.4%

26.9%

45.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.4%

26.9%

45.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ternana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ternana's performance.

Frosinone has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Frosinone might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ternana than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ternana that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Frosinone than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Frosinone could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.4%	52.9%	17.6%

Ternana - Frosinone Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Ternana will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). Frosinone will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 52.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29.2% – 76.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Ternana has the most likely position - 14 (64.49%), project points - 44, currently - 43, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

Frosinone has the most likely position - 1 (100%), project points - 79, currently - 77, not chance of relegated, not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has quality 34, very small importance 0, small match rating 17. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ternana won 0.

Ternana is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Frosinone is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Ternana won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 13-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Ternana won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ternana Calcio
Italian Serie B
13.05.23	Como - Ternana	3:1 ✺
06.05.23	Ternana - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:1 ✺
30.04.23	Cagliari - Ternana	2:1 ✺
23.04.23	Ternana - Venezia	1:4 ✺
16.04.23	Ternana - Pisa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLLLW
- Frosinone Calcio
Italian Serie B
13.05.23	Frosinone - Genoa	3:2 ✺
06.05.23	Pisa - Frosinone	1:3 ✺
01.05.23	Frosinone - Reggina	3:1 ✺
22.04.23	Frosinone - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:0 ✺
15.04.23	Cagliari - Frosinone	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
26.12.22	Frosinone - Ternana	3:0
Club Friendly
30.07.22	Frosinone - Ternana	3:2
Italian Serie B
18.04.22	Ternana - Frosinone	4:4
04.12.21	Frosinone - Ternana	1:1
Club Friendly
31.07.21	Frosinone - Ternana	2:0
Italian Serie B
25.03.18	Ternana - Frosinone	0:0
24.10.17	Frosinone - Ternana	4:2

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