Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 35

Date: 1 May 2023, Monday

Location: Stadio Benito Stirpe (Frosinone)

Referee: Prontera A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Croatia	SportKlub
Italy	Sky Sport, Sky Sport Uno
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Frosinone		Reggina

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.75	5.75	Watch
	1.63	3.6	5.5
	1.61	3.5	6
	1.64	3.72	6.54
	1.64	3.74	5.55	Watch
	1.61	3.65	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.79)	3.66 ↑ (3.5)	5.82 ↑ (4.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Frosinone
58%

Draw
25.8%

Reggina
16.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

26.7%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

26.2%

20.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Frosinone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Frosinone's performance.

Reggina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Reggina might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Frosinone than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Frosinone that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Reggina than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

Frosinone - Reggina Predictions

Users Predictions: Frosinone will win (30 of 33 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.1% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Frosinone has the most likely position - 1 (60.88%), project points - 75, currently - 68, not chance of relegated, a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), a very good chance of promoted (>99%), a good chance of win league (61%).

Reggio Calabria has the most likely position - 7 (32.07%), project points - 53, currently - 49, not chance of relegated, a good chance of prom. playoffs (77%), a very small chance of promoted (2%), not chance of win league.

This event has quality 35, importance 57, match rating 46. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match Frosinone is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Frosinone won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Frosinone won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Frosinone Calcio
Italian Serie B
22.04.23	Frosinone - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:0 ✺
15.04.23	Cagliari - Frosinone	0:0 ✺
10.04.23	Frosinone - Ascoli	2:0 ✺
01.04.23	Perugia - Frosinone	1:1 ✺
18.03.23	Frosinone - Nuova Cosenza	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 TTWTL
- AS Reggina 1914
Italian Serie B
21.04.23	Reggina - Brescia	1:2 ✺
15.04.23	Benevento - Reggina	1:1 ✺
10.04.23	Reggina - Venezia	1:0 ✺
05.04.23	Perugia - Reggina	1:3 ✺
31.03.23	Genoa - Reggina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
08.12.22	Reggina - Frosinone	0:3
23.02.22	Frosinone - Reggina	3:0
25.09.21	Reggina - Frosinone	0:0
10.05.21	Reggina - Frosinone	0:4
23.01.21	Frosinone - Reggina	1:1

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