Match Info

Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Libero Liberati (Terni)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 255
World	FIFA+


	Ternana		Giana Erminio

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.2	4.33
	1.74	3.4	4.8
	1.78	3.34	5.23
	1.76	3.3	5.14	Watch
	1.57	3.4	5.8
	1.77	3.59	4.2	Watch
	1.74	3.4	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.78)	3.38 ↓ (3.39)	4.9 ↑ (4.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ternana
53.6%

Draw
27.4%

Giana Erminio
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.4%

27.5%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.1%

28.9%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ternana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Giana Erminio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ternana than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Giana Erminio than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	9.1%	18.2%

Ternana - Giana Erminio Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Ternana will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Giana Erminio will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ternana: 46.4% – 99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Ternana (votes: 3 - 50%). Giana Erminio (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Giana Erminio (3.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Giana Erminio (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Ternana (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Giana Erminio (votes: 5 - 62.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Vannucchi G. (G) 20. Donati F. 19. Capuano M. 87. Martella B. 15. Casasola T. 17. Aloi S. 4. Vallocchia A. 3. Tito F. 21. Curcio A. 10. Cicerelli E. 9. Ferrante A.	22. Mangiapoco S. (G) 27. Alborghetti M. 6. Ferri L. 47. Scaringi M. 23. Caferri L. 7. Pinto D. 4. Nichetti M. 14. Marotta M. 26. Previtali M. 11. Capelli A. 9. Tirelli M.
Substitutes
56. Bellavigna M. 44. Brignola E. 71. Cianci P. 30. Damiani S. 99. Donnarumma A. 2. Fazzi N. 13. Maestrelli A. 7. Millico V. 18. Montenegro L. 1. Vitali T. (G)	17. Avinci G. 15. Ballabio M. 37. Bassanini R. 12. Buzzi G. (G) 13. Colombara M. 18. De Maria V. 10. Lamesta A. 30. Ledonne N. 8. Montipo M. 21. Pala A. 77. Piazza A. 1. Pirola C. (G) 99. Renda F. 19. Stuckler D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Caferri L. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
65', Pinto D. 🟨,
68', Aloi S. ↓, Damiani S. ↑,
68', Curcio A. ↓, Cianci P. ↑,
73', 1 - 0, Ferrante A. ⚽,
74', Pinto D. ↓, Ballabio M. ↑,
74', Capelli A. ↓, Montipo M. ↑,
74', Ferri L. ↓, De Maria V. ↑,
78', 2 - 0, Casasola T. ⚽,
82', Caferri L. ↓, Stuckler D. ↑,
82', Marotta M. ↓, Lamesta A. ↑,
82', Ferrante A. ↓, Brignola E. ↑,
90+4', Casasola T. ↓, Maestrelli A. ↑,
90+7', Ballabio M. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-1. 2nd leg.

Ternana has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Giana Erminio is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Ternana may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ternana is seen as the favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ternana won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Ternana won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3.

Last Results with these Odds

Ternana - the odds 1.78 are the expected chance of winning is 52.36%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ternana Calcio
Italian Serie C Group A
18.05.25	Giana Erminio - Ternana	1:0 ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
27.04.25	Virtus Entella - Ternana	0:0 ✺
23.04.25	Ternana - Pianese	2:0 ✺
13.04.25	Milan Futuro - Ternana	1:0 ✺
06.04.25	Ternana - Carpi	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LTWLL
- AS Giana Erminio
Italian Serie C Group A
18.05.25	Giana Erminio - Ternana	1:0 ✺
14.05.25	Monopoli - Giana Erminio	1:3 ✺
11.05.25	Giana Erminio - Monopoli	3:1 ✺
07.05.25	Renate - Giana Erminio	1:2 ✺
04.05.25	Giana Erminio - Virtus Verona	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.8 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
18.05.25	Giana Erminio - Ternana	1:0
Italian Serie C Group B
20.04.19	Giana Erminio - Ternana	0:0
16.12.18	Ternana - Giana Erminio	3:3

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