Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 9

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Mino Favini (Meda) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Kovacevic D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Italy	14:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Renate		Giana Erminio

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.95	3.20	3.30
	1.86	3.15	3.65
	2.12	3.18	3.89
	1.94	3.33	3.7	Watch
	2.09	2.95	3.85
	2.02	3.38	3.59	Watch
	2.01	3.20	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.29)	3.2 ↑ (2.88)	3.63 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Renate
46%

Draw
28.7%

Giana Erminio
25.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.8%

31.5%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

30.5%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Renate has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Renate's performance.

Giana Erminio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Renate than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Giana Erminio than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	66.7%	0%

Renate - Giana Erminio Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Renate will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Avella M. (G) 29. Botrini T. 5. Auriletto S. (C) 21. Riviera C. 47. Kerrigan L. 11. Delcarro A. 10. Careccia S. 25. Vassallo F. 14. Cali M. 92. Anelli N. 7. Italeng J.	22. Mazza A. (G) 19. Mora C. 5. Ghezzi S. 60. Rovinelli E. 24. Ruffini L. 14. Marotta M. 25. Zanchetta M. 11. Comelli S. 7. Pinto D. (C) 10. Renda F. 29. Samele L.
Substitutes
12. Bartoccioni A. (G) 17. Bonetti A. 2. De Zen R. 8. Dore S. 23. Gobbo L. 72. Mastromonaco G. 73. Minotti G. 13. Motoc A. 71. Ruiz Giraldo P. 15. Suarez M. 33. Tempre M. 4. Vigano F. 20. Zalazar S.	12. Azzolari E. (G) 26. Ballabio M. 28. Di Bitonto C. 13. Golin M. 8. Magazzu L. 27. Manzoni F. 21. Muhameti E. 3. Nucifero T. 4. Piazza A. 9. Quaggio A. 6. Saggionetto N. 23. Tornaghi P. 1. Zenti A. (G)
Coaches
Banchieri S.	Tacchinardi M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', Cali M. (Penalty Awarded),
19', 1 - 0, Cali M. ⚽,
22', Mora C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Ghezzi S. ↓, Tornaghi P. ↑,
60', 1 - 1, Riviera C. (Own goal),
62', Vassallo F. ↓, Bonetti A. ↑,
63', Zanchetta M. ↓, Ballabio M. ↑,
63', Ruffini L. ↓, Nucifero T. ↑,
67', Pinto D. ↓, Muhameti E. ↑,
69', 2 - 1, Kerrigan L. ⚽,
72', Kerrigan L. ↓, Motoc A. ↑,
73', Botrini T. ↓, Tempre M. ↑,
73', Samele L. ↓, Magazzu L. ↑,
80', 2 - 2, Renda F. (Penalty Awarded),
87', Tacchinardi M. 🟨,
90+3', Tornaghi P. 🟨,
90+4', Ballabio M. 🟨,

Preview

A high-tension relegation six-pointer between two sides desperate to escape the danger zone (ranked 20th in the Relegation and 19th in the Serie C - Play Out).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Renate won 2.

Renate is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Performances by Giana Erminio have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Giana Erminio may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Renate holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Renate has recorded 10 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 27:25 (averaging 1.4:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Renate against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with 16:12 goals (averaging 1.6:1.2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Giana Erminio	11	2	5	4	12:14	-2	11
20	Renate	11	0	5	6	9:16	-7	5

Last Results with these Odds

Renate - the odds 2.29 are the expected chance of winning is 39.77%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Giana Erminio - the odds 3.17 are the expected chance of winning is 28.69%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Renate
Italian Serie C Group A
03.10.26	Ospitaletto - Renate	1:1 ✺
27.09.26	Renate - Treviso	0:1 ✺
20.09.26	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Renate	2:1 ✺
17.09.26	Renate - Dolomiti Bellunesi	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Lumezzane - Renate	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TLLTT
- AS Giana Erminio
Italian Serie C Group A
04.10.26	Treviso - Giana Erminio	0:0 ✺
26.09.26	Giana Erminio - Pro Vercelli	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Folgore Caratese - Giana Erminio	1:1 ✺
17.09.26	Giana Erminio - Trento	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Lecco - Giana Erminio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
10.01.26	Giana Erminio - Renate	0:1
30.08.25	Renate - Giana Erminio	1:1
07.05.25	Renate - Giana Erminio	1:2
18.01.25	Giana Erminio - Renate	2:1
13.09.24	Renate - Giana Erminio	1:0
20.04.24	Renate - Giana Erminio	0:2
16.12.23	Giana Erminio - Renate	2:1

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