Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 July 2026, Thursday

Location: A. Le Coq Arena (Tallinn)

Referee: Karlsson K. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Soccernet TV
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport, S4C Clic, S4C
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Flora Tallinn		The New Saints

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.5	2.6	Watch
	2.25	3.40	2.80
	2.28	3.45	2.78	Watch
	2.27	3.97	2.75
	1.27	5.17	11.54	Watch
	2.2	3.85	2.55
	2.42	3.67	2.73	Watch
	2.38	3.6	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (2.06)	3.83 ↑ (3.53)	3.79 ↑ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flora Tallinn
46.7%

Draw
26.5%

The New Saints
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

25.8%

29.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flora Tallinn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

The New Saints has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.7%	17.6%	17.6%

Flora Tallinn - The New Saints Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Flora will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). TNS will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Flora: 42% – 87.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Grunvald E. (G) 7. Kuraksin D. 23. Kolobov M. 3. Kollo A. 26. Tovstik S. 18. Valdmets R. 32. Kreida V. 14. Varjund T. 20. Zenjov S. 11. Sappinen R. (C) 29. Alamaa S.	1. Shepperd N. (G) 22. Davies D. 16. Simeu D. 6. Bodenham J. 10. Redmond D. (C) 21. Smith L. 14. Williams D. 4. Corness D. 8. Brobbel R. 17. Williams J. 20. Hughes R.
Substitutes
9. Alliku R. 67. Antonov I. 89. Kalimullin M. 99. Kivila K. (G) 51. Kukkonen M. 24. Pihela O. 53. Sammul R. 22. Tatrik A. (G) 8. Teevali T. 17. Usta T. 6. Veering R.	7. Barton D. 19. Clark B. 30. Edwards J. (G) 15. Farrell E. 12. Godsmark-Ford H. 18. Holden R. 37. Jefferies I. 34. Lock J. 23. Nolan Z. 2. Owen J. 26. Phillips L. 31. Woollam B.
Coaches
Vasiliev K.	Harrison C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Valdmets R. ⚽, Zenjov S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Brobbel R. ↓, Clark B. ↑,
61', Williams J. ↓, Farrell E. ↑,
61', Corness D. ↓, Holden R. ↑,
64', Valdmets R. ↓, Usta T. ↑,
69', Zenjov S. ↓, Alliku R. ↑,
73', Kuraksin D. ↓, Antonov I. ↑,
90+1', Williams D. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Recent performances by Flora have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

TNS may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flora Tallinn
Estonian Meistriliiga
17.07.26	Flora Tallinn - Nõmme United	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
14.07.26	Iberia 1999 - Flora Tallinn	2:2 ✺
08.07.26	Flora Tallinn - Iberia 1999	2:3 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
02.07.26	Kuressaare - Flora Tallinn	0:3 ✺
28.06.26	Levadia Tallinn - Flora Tallinn	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 LTLWW
- The New Saints
UEFA Champions League
14.07.26	The New Saints - Sabah	1:2 ✺
07.07.26	Sabah - The New Saints	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
26.06.26	Harland & Wolff Welders - The New Saints	1:2 ✺
24.06.26	Glentoran - The New Saints	1:1 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
18.04.26	Barry Town United - The New Saints	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLWTW

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