Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - Final

Date: 27 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Stockhorn Arena (Thun)

Referee: Meler H. U. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
Poland	TVP 2
Switzerland	Play RTS, Play RTS, SRF Play, SRF Play
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	OneFootball TV


	Thun		Lech Poznań

	1	X	2
	2.90	4.10	2.00
	2.95	3.75	2.20
	2.88	3.80	2.20	Watch
	2.88	4.07	2.26
	2.68	4.11	2.29	Watch
	2.70	3.95	2.25
	3.16	4.24	2.00	Watch
	2.85	3.90	2.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↑ (2.44)	3.99 ↑ (3.23)	2.17 ↓ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thun
32.8%

Draw
23.7%

Lech Poznań
43.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

27.4%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

27.5%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thun has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lech Poznań's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thun than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lech Poznań, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.8%	21.7%	30.4%

Thun - Lech Poznań Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Thun will win (votes: 11 - 47.8%). Lech will win (votes: 7 - 30.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 21.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Thun: 27.4% – 68.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 4.5 - under (1.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Thun will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Spycher T. (G) 37. Dahler L. 54. Passavant L. 23. Burki M. (C) 18. Strannegard T. 30. Maier N. 8. Saiz F. 13. Zoukit N. 21. Derbaci D. 9. Dursun F. 80. Lengen S.	1. Lis M. (G) 20. Gumny R. 72. Skrzypczak M. 27. Monka W. 15. Gurgul M. 43. Kozubal A. (C) 5. Berggren G. 17. Sayyadmanesh A. 77. Palma L. 11. Hakans D. 7. Agnero Y.
Substitutes
19. Bamert J. 20. Braschi R. 5. Burgy N. 47. Fehr F. 52. Ilic A. 96. Labeau B. 58. Maaroufi A. 70. Reichmuth N. 16. Roth J. 1. Steffen N. (G) 22. Walti D. (G)	53. Delikat K. 24. Jagiello F. 22. Murawski R. 31. Obremski W. (G) 2. Pereira J. 35. Pruchniewski M. (G) 21. Rodriguez P. 56. Szymczak W. 10. Walemark P. 59. Yegbe T.
Coaches
Privitelli G. L.	Frederiksen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Gumny R. ⚽, Palma L. (A),
22', 1 - 1, Lengen S. ⚽, Dursun F. (A),
26', Hakans D. ↓, Walemark P. ↑,
32', Maier N. 🟨,
40', Berggren G. 🟨,
43', 2 - 1, Dursun F. ⚽, Maier N. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Strannegard T. ↓, Fehr F. ↑,
46', Saiz F. ↓, Roth J. ↑,
46', Kozubal A. ↓, Murawski R. ↑,
53', Walemark P. 🟨,
56', Maier N. ↓, Ilic A. ↑,
61', Dursun F. ↓, Braschi R. ↑,
67', Sayyadmanesh A. ↓, Rodriguez P. ↑,
68', 2 - 2, Walemark P. ⚽, Lis M. (A),
73', Lengen S. ↓, Reichmuth N. ↑,
75', Passavant L. 🟨,
80', Monka W. ↓, Yegbe T. ↑,
80', Agnero Y. ↓, Jagiello F. ↑,
90+1', Skrzypczak M. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-7.

Recent form of Thun has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lech is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Thun won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:7.

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Lech Poznan: 0.56%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
35	Lech Poznan	1	0	0	1	0:4	-4	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Thun
UEFA Europa League
20.08.26	Lech Poznań - Thun	7:0 ✺
13.08.26	Vikingur Reykjavik - Thun	3:2 ✺
Swiss Super League
09.08.26	Basel - Thun	4:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.08.26	Thun - Vikingur Reykjavik	3:0 ✺
Swiss Super League
01.08.26	Thun - Young Boys	0:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLWL
- Lech Poznań
UEFA Europa League
20.08.26	Lech Poznań - Thun	7:0 ✺
14.08.26	KÍ Klaksvík - Lech Poznań	0:5 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
09.08.26	Lech Poznań - Piast Gliwice	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.08.26	Lech Poznań - KÍ Klaksvík	1:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.08.26	Wieczysta Kraków - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
20.08.26	Lech Poznań - Thun	7:0

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