Match Info

ARGENTINA: Torneo Betano - Round 16

Date: 1 October 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio José Dellagiovanna (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Zunino S. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN Premium
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+, Fanatiz, TyC Sports Internacional


	Tigre		Independiente

	1	X	2
	3.5	2.88	2.35	Watch
	3.4	2.75	2.37
	3.5	2.82	2.35	Watch
	3.74	2.83	2.44
	3.7	2.78	2.38	Watch
	3.4	2.88	2.38
	3.6	2.84	2.37	Watch
	3.5	2.82	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.54 ↑ (2.43)	2.83 ↓ (2.99)	2.37 ↓ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

Watch this match and Argentinian Liga Profesional with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: TyC Sports

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Current Win Probability

Tigre
26.7%

Draw
33.5%

Independiente
39.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

31.7%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

32.1%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tigre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tigre's form might have worsened.

Independiente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Independiente's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tigre than the current prediction. (+11.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tigre, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Independiente, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	66.7%	22.2%

Tigre - Independiente Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Independiente will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Sosa A. (G) 8. Garay M. 22. Leizza B. 30. Paz N. 25. Moreno V. 27. Gonzalez S. 5. Cardozo A. (C) 18. Armoa B. 10. Maroni G. 20. Galvan T. 23. Monzon F.	33. Rey R. (G) 35. Salle S. 26. Lomonaco K. 2. Laso J. 15. Perez D. 5. Loyola F. 23. Marcone I. (C) 17. Gonzalez L. 44. Montiel S. 9. Avalos G. 24. Lopez S.
Substitutes
28. Benitez R. 14. Ferreyra F. 11. Forclaz E. 1. Fuster L. (G) 21. Medina S. 32. Minissale P. 33. Miranda L. 6. Nardelli G. 7. Ramirez E. 17. Sarmiento D. 16. Scipioni L.	32. Canelo A. 29. Fedorco J. 19. Luna A. 18. Maestro I. 11. Mancuello F. 21. Martinez D. 6. Pellegrino M. 28. Quinonez Ruiz J. R. 25. Segovia D. (G) 3. Sporle A. 27. Tarzia D. 10. Toloza S.
Coaches
Dominguez S.	Vaccari J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', Gonzalez L. 🟨,
21', Perez D. 🟨,
24', 0 - 1, Avalos G. ⚽, Salle S. (A),
31', Maroni G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Armoa B. ↓, Sarmiento D. ↑,
52', 1 - 1, Monzon F. ⚽, Gonzalez S. (A),
58', Perez D. ↓, Sporle A. ↑,
58', Laso J. ↓, Pellegrino M. ↑,
71', Lopez S. ↓, Tarzia D. ↑,
71', Gonzalez L. ↓, Mancuello F. ↑,
73', Monzon F. ↓, Ramirez E. ↑,
73', Galvan T. ↓, Medina S. ↑,
77', Ramirez E. 🟨,
78', Gonzalez S. ↓, Scipioni L. ↑,
86', Salle S. ↓, Maestro I. ↑,
89', Maroni G. ↓, Ferreyra F. ↑,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 23 and 20).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tigre won 2.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Tigre could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Independiente will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Tigre: Banegas N. (Injury) Forclaz E. (Injury) Marchese A. (Injury) Protti I. (Injury)

There will not play in Independiente: Gimenez M. (Injury)

Last 12 head-to-head matches Tigre won 2 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 12:16 (average 1:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Tigre won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7:7 (average 1.4:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Tigre
Argentinian Liga Profesional
21.09.24	Newells Old Boys - Tigre	1:0 ✺
14.09.24	Tigre - Gimnasia La Plata	1:1 ✺
01.09.24	Huracán Buenos Aires - Tigre	0:2 ✺
24.08.24	Tigre - Unión Santa Fe	5:1 ✺
18.08.24	Sarmiento de Junín - Tigre	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.3 LTWWT
- CA Independiente
Copa Argentina
27.09.24	Vélez Sársfield - Independiente	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
22.09.24	Independiente - Argentinos Juniors	0:0 ✺
14.09.24	Belgrano - Independiente	1:1 ✺
01.09.24	Independiente - River Plate	0:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
28.08.24	Godoy Cruz - Independiente	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
13.05.23	Independiente - Tigre	2:1
09.10.22	Tigre - Independiente	2:1
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
09.04.22	Independiente - Tigre	1:1
Copa Argentina
04.08.21	Tigre - Independiente	2:1
Argentinian Liga Profesional
28.09.18	Independiente - Tigre	0:0
19.03.18	Tigre - Independiente	1:1
24.09.16	Independiente - Tigre	1:1

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