Match Info

Liga MX - Clausura - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Universitario (San Nicolás de los Garza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, FOX One, FOX Sports
Usa	Estrella TV, FOX Deportes, FOX Deportes, FOX One, FOX Sports App, Foxsports.com, NBC Universo, Peacock, Telemundo


	Tigres UANL		Chivas Guadalajara

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.5	4.1
	1.95	3.3	3.8
	1.85	3.45	4.15
	1.88	3.69	4.49
	1.86	3.66	4.12
	1.75	3.25	3.9
	1.88	3.5	3.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (2.34)	3.48 ↑ (3.45)	4.07 ↑ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tigres UANL
50.2%

Draw
26.9%

Chivas Guadalajara
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

27%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

26.3%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tigres UANL has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tigres UANL's performance.

Chivas Guadalajara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chivas Guadalajara might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tigres UANL than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tigres UANL that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chivas Guadalajara than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chivas Guadalajara could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Tigres UANL - Chivas Guadalajara Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Tigres will win (votes: 15 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tigres: 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tigres (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Tigres (3.46) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Tigres (1.63) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Tigres (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Guzman N. (G) 14. Garza J. 23. Romulo 27. Angulo J. 2. Reyes F. 5. Araujo C. 11. Brunetta J. 16. Lainez D. 7. Correa A. 8. Gorriaran F. (C) 17. Aguirre R.	13. Whalley O. (G) 19. Campillo Del Campo D. 4. Tapias M. 2. Castillo J. 37. Ledezma R. 6. Govea O. 28. Gonzalez F. (C) 5. Gonzalez B. 226. Sandoval S. 17. Marin R. 10. Alvarez E.
Substitutes
20. Flores M. 198. Galvan I. 10. Gignac A. 33. Guerrero R. 32. Lorona V. 25. Rodriguez F. (G) 30. Sanchez Guevara D. A. 4. Sanchez J. 204. Simeone 6. Vigon J.	67. Aguayo S. 56. Chavez A. 24. Gomez M. 225. Inda S. 201. Liceaga J. (G) 217. Mata H. 31. Padilla Y. 18. Perez J. 20. Sepulveda A. 3. Sepulveda G.
Coaches
Pizarro G.	Milito G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Marin R. ⚽,
32', Aguirre R. 🟨,
33', Govea O. 🟨,
38', Gorriaran F. 🟨,
45', 1 - 1, Angulo J. ⚽, Brunetta J. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Reyes F. ↓, Sanchez Guevara D. A. ↑,
53', 2 - 1, Brunetta J. ⚽,
55', 3 - 1, Sanchez Guevara D. A. ⚽,
61', Sandoval S. ↓, Sepulveda A. ↑,
65', Aguirre R. ↓, Vigon J. ↑,
68', Alvarez E. ↓, Padilla Y. ↑,
68', Ledezma R. ↓, Gomez M. ↑,
80', Angulo J. ↓, Guerrero R. ↑,
80', Marin R. ↓, Aguayo S. ↑,
86', Lainez D. ↓, Lorona V. ↑,
86', Brunetta J. ↓, Gignac A. ↑,
89', Correa A. 🟨,
90+3', Guerrero R. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tigres won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Tigres may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Tigres has had a series of away games.

Tigres is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tigres won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 34:18. (average 1.7:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Tigres won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:9. (average 1.7:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Guadalajara Chivas	11	5	4	2	18:11	7	19
11	Tigres UANL	11	3	4	4	13:15	-2	13

Last Results with these Odds

Chivas Guadalajara - the odds 2.82 are the expected chance of winning is 33.08%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tigres UANL
CONCACAF Champions Cup
28.04.26	Nashville SC - Tigres UANL	0:1 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
25.04.26	Tigres UANL - Mazatlan	5:1 ✺
22.04.26	Atlas - Tigres UANL	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Necaxa - Tigres UANL	1:1 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
15.04.26	Seattle Sounders - Tigres UANL	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWTTL
- Chivas Guadalajara
Mexican Liga MX
25.04.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Tijuana	0:0 ✺
22.04.26	Necaxa - Chivas Guadalajara	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Puebla	5:0 ✺
11.04.26	Tigres UANL - Chivas Guadalajara	4:1 ✺
05.04.26	Chivas Guadalajara - UNAM	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
11.04.26	Tigres UANL - Chivas Guadalajara	4:1
17.09.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Tigres UANL	0:0
25.01.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Tigres UANL	1:1
24.08.24	Tigres UANL - Chivas Guadalajara	1:1
21.01.24	Tigres UANL - Chivas Guadalajara	1:0
28.10.23	Chivas Guadalajara - Tigres UANL	0:4
28.05.23	Chivas Guadalajara - Tigres UANL	2:3 ET

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